提高家庭可支配收入可保证中国经济稳定增长
文章来源:未知 文章作者:enread 发布时间:2022-05-16 05:37 字体: [ ]  进入论坛
(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
中国金融四十人论坛的青年研究员认为,当前中国居民消费低迷有疫情因素,但是也有家庭可支配收入不足的原因。通过补贴中低收入群体、精准的消费刺激政策和补偿小微企业等措施可以有效提高家庭可支配收入,从而保证中国经济稳定增长。
 
After several major shock waves of COVID-19 outbreaks since 2020, China's economy has gradually recovered from the impact brought by the contagion1, though recovery in household consumption has been relatively2 slow. There is still a certain gap between current household consumption levels and originally expected levels, or the trendline level for the sector3. The gap is mainly attributable to some nonessential consumption sectors4 including education, entertainment, transportation and healthcare.
自2020年以来暴发了几轮新冠疫情后,中国经济已逐步从疫情影响中恢复过来,但是家庭消费水平的恢复仍然相对缓慢。当前家庭消费水平和原来预期的消费趋势之间仍然存在着一定差距。这一差距主要源自包括教育、娱乐、交通和医疗等非必需消费领域的消费支出减少。
 
Trendlines are used to analyze5 the specific direction of a group of values or phenomena6. There are two kinds of trendlines-uptrends and downtrends. Trendlines allow businesses to see differences at various points over a period of time. This helps foretell7 possible paths values might take in the future, and reveal performance, value and competitiveness factors of specific products and services, along with relevant business departments, such as sales.
趋势线被用来分析一组价值或现象的具体方向,有上升和下降两种趋势线。通过趋势线,企业可以看到一段时期内各个点的差异。这有助于预测价值的未来走向,揭示特定产品和服务以及相关业务部门(比如销售)的表现、价值和竞争力。
 
The trendline hereafter mentioned is calculated based on data of total consumer spending collected through government surveys from 2013 to 2021.
以下所提到的趋势线是基于2013年到2021年政府调查收集的消费者支出总额数据计算得出的。
 
Based on calculations using official data, we made a comparison between actual household consumption with calculated trendlines in the corresponding period and found that though the gap between household consumption in 2021 and the trendline is significantly narrower than that in 2020, the gap still exists, which stands at some 590 billion yuan ($92.6 billion).
基于对官方数据的计算,我们将实际家庭消费和对应时期计算所得的趋势线做了一个比较,结果发现,2021年家庭消费和趋势线之间的差距比2020年的差距要小得多,但是差距依然存在,约为5900亿元。
 
If viewed from a consumption structure, among the eight major categories of consumer spending, the consumption of daily necessities, such as clothing, housing, food, tobacco and alcohol, in 2021 has basically returned to the trendline level shown before the COVID-19 outbreak. However, recovery in nonessential consumption sectors, such as durable8 goods and services, is slower than expected, with the gap between current consumption levels and the trendline level shown before the COVID-19 outbreak still relatively large. Among all sectors witnessing consumption gaps in 2021, education, culture and entertainment consumption make up the largest portions. Other nonessential-or optional-consumption sectors, though having seen narrower gaps, are still falling behind the trendline level, among which transportation and communication consumption makes up the major part, followed by education, culture and entertainment.
从消费结构来看,在八大消费类别中,服装、住房、食品、烟草和酒精等日常必需品的消费在2021年已基本回归至新冠疫情暴发前预期的趋势水平。然而,耐用品和服务等非必需消费领域的复苏比预期要缓慢,当前消费水平与疫情前预期的趋势水平之间的差距仍相对较大。2021年存在消费差距的所有领域中,教育、文化和娱乐消费占比最大。其他非必需或可选消费领域尽管差距缩小,但仍落后于趋势水平,其中交通、通信消费落后最多,其次是教育、文化和娱乐消费。
 
Based on the above information, it is obvious that there is still great potential for consumption recovery, and the key to unleashing9 that potential is to identify restrictive factors. Currently, there are two mainstream10 explanations surrounding the slow recovery in consumption. One is that the current COVID-19 situation is affecting the recovery of household consumption to a certain extent, especially that of services consumption. The other is that the slow recovery of consumption actually reflects that household incomes have not fully11 recovered.
基于上述信息可明显看出,消费复苏还有很大潜力,释放这一潜力的关键就是识别限制因素。目前,围绕消费复苏缓慢有两大主流解释。其一是当前的新冠疫情在某种程度上影响了家庭消费的恢复,尤其是服务类消费。其二是消费复苏缓慢实际上反映出家庭收入还未完全恢复。
 
The impact of COVID-19 situation on goods consumption is obviously much smaller than that on services, so if COVID-19 situation is the main factor restricting household consumption, we are supposed to have a clear view of a structural12 differentiation13 in commodities and services consumption-that is, commodity consumption gradually inching closer to the trendline level, while service consumption deviates14 significantly from its own.
新冠疫情对商品消费的影响显然比对服务消费的影响小得多,所以如果疫情是限制家庭消费的主要因素,我们应该对商品和服务消费的结构性差异有一个清晰认知,也就是,商品消费逐渐接近趋势水平,而服务消费仍和趋势水平有较大差距。
 
However, according to our calculations based on official data since 2021, the gap of actual consumer goods consumption between its trendline level-which has been narrowing from the start of the year-has remained steady since July 2021, with no signs of further narrowing for the remainder of the year. The gap between services consumption and its trendline level is even larger, reflecting shocks of several rounds of domestic COVID-19 resurgences to the sector.
但是,根据我们基于2021年以来官方数据的计算,实际消费品消费和趋势线之间的差距从2022年初就开始缩小,而且自2021年7月以来一直保持稳定,下半年也没有显示出继续缩小的迹象。服务消费和趋势水平之间的差距甚至更大,反映出国内疫情数次反复对服务行业的冲击。
 
The analysis, together with the figures, tell us the significance of raising household disposable incomes in maintaining China's stable growth this year.
分析和数据结合在一起,告诉我们提高家庭可支配收入对于保持中国今年经济稳定增长的重要性。
 
Household disposable consumption is not only the foundation for better livelihoods15, but also a pillar for stable economic growth. The current relative sluggish16 consumption performance is certainly due to the pandemic, but a more important reason is the lack of disposable income. Therefore, increasing disposable income and shaping good income expectations are the basis of, and key to, promoting consumption.
家庭可支配收入不仅是改善民生的基石,也是经济稳定增长的支柱。当前消费增长缓慢肯定和疫情有关,但是更重要的原因是缺乏可支配收入。因此,增加可支配收入和形成良好的收入预期是促进消费的基础和关键。
 
Our first thought to this end is that macroeconomic policies should always focus on "steady growth", as was highlighted in many recent top meetings. Continued efforts are needed to ensure a reasonable economic growth rate and full employment, and consolidate17 the economic foundation to improve household incomes. In this process, fiscal18 policy is particularly important. It is necessary to demonstrate a clear expansion in the level of fiscal expenditure19 growth while having clear visibility of the bottom line-the growth rate of fiscal expenditure cannot be lower than the nominal20 GDP growth rate.
对此我们的第一个建议是宏观政策应该始终聚焦“稳定增长”,正如近期多次高层会议所强调的那样。我们要不断致力于确保合理的经济增长速度和充分就业,筑牢经济基础以提高家庭收入。在这一过程中,财政政策尤其重要。既有必要展现出财政支出水平的明显扩张态势,同时也要明确底线——财政支出的增长率不能低于名义GDP增长率。
 
Second, the structure of public spending should be continuously optimized21. In addition to tax and fee reductions for the corporate22 sector, subsidies23 for low and middle-income groups should also be strengthened. During economic downturns, vulnerable families are the first to suffer. By issuing temporary subsidies to low-income groups, the elderly and infants, such a policy can help achieve two goals-protecting people's livelihoods and helping24 boost consumption. A common concern is that subsidies will primarily translate into savings25 rather than consumption. It should be noted26 that if subsidies are mainly transformed into savings rather than consumption, there will be no pressure on inflation. No monetary27 and fiscal policy space will be consumed, and the policy cost will be very low.
其次,应该不断优化公共支出结构。除了对企业的减税降费,也要加强对中低收入群体的补贴。在经济低迷时期,困难家庭是最先受苦的。通过给低收入群体、老人和婴儿发放临时补贴,这类政策有助于达到两个目标——维持百姓的生计和帮助促进消费。一个共同关注的问题是这些补贴主要会转化为积蓄而不是消费。值得注意的是,如果补贴主要转化为积蓄而非消费,对通货膨胀将不会产生压力。货币和财政政策空间不会被消耗,政策成本也会很低。
 
Third, the government should implement28 more precise and powerful consumption stimulus29 policies based on prices and income elasticity30 of different consumer goods. The income and price elasticity of optional consumption sectors, such as education, entertainment, transportation and medical care, is relatively high, and these sectors are exactly where sluggish consumption is witnessed. Consumer coupons31, consumption subsidies and other means of encouraging measures should focus on these sectors to obtain greater policy effect.
第三,政府应该基于不同消费品的价格和收入弹性实施更精准更有力的消费刺激政策。教育、娱乐、交通和医疗等可选消费领域的收入和价格弹性相对较高,正是这些领域消费增长缓慢。消费券、消费补贴和其他鼓励消费的手段应该集中于这些领域以获得更大的政策效果。
 
Last but not least it is important to alleviate32 the anxiety brought by the uncertainty33 of the COVID-19 pandemic for small and micro enterprises and self-employed business owners. These very market entities34 are all associated with mass employment, especially low- and middle-income earners. The government can set up a special fund to cover their expenses related to COVID-19 prevention, such as nucleic acid testing, quarantine costs and treatment.
最后但同样重要的是,应该减轻新冠疫情的不确定性给小微企业和个体工商户带来的焦虑情绪。这些市场主体和大众就业紧密相关,尤其是中低收入者。政府可以设立专项资金来覆盖他们的疫情防控相关费用,比如核酸检测、隔离成本和治疗。
 
Compensation measures for market players that have suffered from the COVID-19 pandemic should be formulated35, and market players should be informed in advance that they may be compensated36 for their operating losses due to pandemic prevention and control work. Developing targeted capital support to help smaller enterprises resume operations is also helpful to this end. Such efforts will strengthen market players' confidence in investment and operations, and enable them to play bigger roles in supporting the nation's stable growth.
对遭受疫情打击的市场主体应采取补偿措施,并提前告知市场主体他们因疫情防控而承受的运营损失可以获得补偿。精准投放扶持资金来帮助中小企业复产也有助于缓解市场主体的焦虑情绪。这些举措将能加强市场主体对于投资和运营的信心,从而让他们对支持国家经济稳定增长发挥更大的作用。


点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 contagion 9ZNyl     
n.(通过接触的疾病)传染;蔓延
参考例句:
  • A contagion of fear swept through the crowd.一种恐惧感在人群中迅速蔓延开。
  • The product contagion effect has numerous implications for marketing managers and retailers.产品传染效应对市场营销管理者和零售商都有很多的启示。
2 relatively bkqzS3     
adv.比较...地,相对地
参考例句:
  • The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
  • The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。
3 sector yjczYn     
n.部门,部分;防御地段,防区;扇形
参考例句:
  • The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
  • The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。
4 sectors 218ffb34fa5fb6bc1691e90cd45ad627     
n.部门( sector的名词复数 );领域;防御地区;扇形
参考例句:
  • Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
5 analyze RwUzm     
vt.分析,解析 (=analyse)
参考例句:
  • We should analyze the cause and effect of this event.我们应该分析这场事变的因果。
  • The teacher tried to analyze the cause of our failure.老师设法分析我们失败的原因。
6 phenomena 8N9xp     
n.现象
参考例句:
  • Ade couldn't relate the phenomena with any theory he knew.艾德无法用他所知道的任何理论来解释这种现象。
  • The object of these experiments was to find the connection,if any,between the two phenomena.这些实验的目的就是探索这两种现象之间的联系,如果存在着任何联系的话。
7 foretell 9i3xj     
v.预言,预告,预示
参考例句:
  • Willow trees breaking out into buds foretell the coming of spring.柳枝绽青报春来。
  • The outcome of the war is hard to foretell.战争胜负难以预卜。
8 durable frox4     
adj.持久的,耐久的
参考例句:
  • This raincoat is made of very durable material.这件雨衣是用非常耐用的料子做的。
  • They frequently require more major durable purchases.他们经常需要购买耐用消费品。
9 unleashing 8742c1b567c83ec8d9e14c8aeacbc729     
v.把(感情、力量等)释放出来,发泄( unleash的现在分词 )
参考例句:
  • Company logos: making people's life better by unleashing Cummins power. 公司理念:以康明斯动力建设更美好的生活! 来自互联网
  • Sooner or later the dam will burst, unleashing catastrophic destruction. 否则堤坝将崩溃,酿成灾难。 来自互联网
10 mainstream AoCzh9     
n.(思想或行为的)主流;adj.主流的
参考例句:
  • Their views lie outside the mainstream of current medical opinion.他们的观点不属于当今医学界观点的主流。
  • Polls are still largely reflects the mainstream sentiment.民调还在很大程度上反映了社会主流情绪。
11 fully Gfuzd     
adv.完全地,全部地,彻底地;充分地
参考例句:
  • The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气,然后全部呼出。
  • They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。
12 structural itXw5     
adj.构造的,组织的,建筑(用)的
参考例句:
  • The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
  • The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。
13 differentiation wuozfs     
n.区别,区分
参考例句:
  • There can be no differentiation without contrast. 有比较才有差别。
  • The operation that is the inverse of differentiation is called integration. 与微分相反的运算叫做积分。
14 deviates 095f40a93b73fe7ea87eddba8bee1aec     
v.偏离,越轨( deviate的第三人称单数 )
参考例句:
  • The boy's behavior deviates from the usual pattern. 这个男孩子的举止与一般人不同。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • The limit occurs when the ordinate deviates appreciably from unity. 这个限度发生在纵坐标明显地从单位1偏离的时候。 来自辞典例句
15 livelihoods 53a2f8716b41c07918d6fc5d944b18a5     
生计,谋生之道( livelihood的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • First came the earliest individualistic pioneers who depended on hunting and fishing for their livelihoods. 走在最前面的是早期的个人主义先驱者,他们靠狩猎捕鱼为生。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件
  • With little influence over policies, their traditional livelihoods are threatened. 因为马赛族人对政策的影响力太小,他们的传统生计受到了威胁。
16 sluggish VEgzS     
adj.懒惰的,迟钝的,无精打采的
参考例句:
  • This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
  • Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。
17 consolidate XYkyV     
v.使加固,使加强;(把...)联为一体,合并
参考例句:
  • The two banks will consolidate in July next year. 这两家银行明年7月将合并。
  • The government hoped to consolidate ten states to form three new ones.政府希望把十个州合并成三个新的州。
18 fiscal agbzf     
adj.财政的,会计的,国库的,国库岁入的
参考例句:
  • The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
  • The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。
19 expenditure XPbzM     
n.(时间、劳力、金钱等)支出;使用,消耗
参考例句:
  • The entry of all expenditure is necessary.有必要把一切开支入账。
  • The monthly expenditure of our family is four hundred dollars altogether.我们一家的开销每月共计四百元。
20 nominal Y0Tyt     
adj.名义上的;(金额、租金)微不足道的
参考例句:
  • The king was only the nominal head of the state. 国王只是这个国家名义上的元首。
  • The charge of the box lunch was nominal.午餐盒饭收费很少。
21 optimized 81c61ac8ff2adb570ce4c7e7dfed59bd     
adj.最佳化的,(使)最优化的v.使最优化,使尽可能有效( optimize的过去式和过去分词 )
参考例句:
  • We are often asked whether consumer Web sites should be optimized for beginners or intermediates. 我们常常被问到这样的问题:消费类网站究竟应该为新手而优化,还是应该为中间用户而优化? 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
  • GOOGLE Advertising optimized sequence, greatly increasing the advertising effect. 优化了GOOGLE广告位排列顺序,大大增加了广告效果。 来自互联网
22 corporate 7olzl     
adj.共同的,全体的;公司的,企业的
参考例句:
  • This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
  • His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。
23 subsidies 84c7dc8329c19e43d3437248757e572c     
n.补贴,津贴,补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
  • Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》
24 helping 2rGzDc     
n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的,辅助的
参考例句:
  • The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
  • By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。
25 savings ZjbzGu     
n.存款,储蓄
参考例句:
  • I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假,那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
  • By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时,他的存款已全部用完。
26 noted 5n4zXc     
adj.著名的,知名的
参考例句:
  • The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
  • Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。
27 monetary pEkxb     
adj.货币的,钱的;通货的;金融的;财政的
参考例句:
  • The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
  • Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。
28 implement WcdzG     
n.(pl.)工具,器具;vt.实行,实施,执行
参考例句:
  • Don't undertake a project unless you can implement it.不要承担一项计划,除非你能完成这项计划。
  • The best implement for digging a garden is a spade.在花园里挖土的最好工具是铁锹。
29 stimulus 3huyO     
n.刺激,刺激物,促进因素,引起兴奋的事物
参考例句:
  • Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
  • Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。
30 elasticity 8jlzp     
n.弹性,伸缩力
参考例句:
  • The skin eventually loses its elasticity.皮肤最终会失去弹性。
  • Every sort of spring has a definite elasticity.每一种弹簧都有一定的弹性。
31 coupons 28882724d375042a7b19db1e976cb622     
n.礼券( coupon的名词复数 );优惠券;订货单;参赛表
参考例句:
  • The company gives away free coupons for drinks or other items. 公司为饮料或其它项目发放免费赠券。 来自辞典例句
  • Do you have any coupons? 你们有优惠卡吗? 来自英汉 - 翻译样例 - 口语
32 alleviate ZxEzJ     
v.减轻,缓和,缓解(痛苦等)
参考例句:
  • The doctor gave her an injection to alleviate the pain.医生给她注射以减轻疼痛。
  • Nothing could alleviate his distress.什么都不能减轻他的痛苦。
33 uncertainty NlFwK     
n.易变,靠不住,不确知,不确定的事物
参考例句:
  • Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
  • After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后,压力开始产生影响了。
34 entities 07214c6750d983a32e0a33da225c4efd     
实体对像; 实体,独立存在体,实际存在物( entity的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • Our newspaper and our printing business form separate corporate entities. 我们的报纸和印刷业形成相对独立的企业实体。
  • The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities. 北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。
35 formulated cfc86c2c7185ae3f93c4d8a44e3cea3c     
v.构想出( formulate的过去式和过去分词 );规划;确切地阐述;用公式表示
参考例句:
  • He claims that the writer never consciously formulated his own theoretical position. 他声称该作家从未有意识地阐明他自己的理论见解。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • This idea can be formulated in two different ways. 这个意思可以有两种说法。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
36 compensated 0b0382816fac7dbf94df37906582be8f     
补偿,报酬( compensate的过去式和过去分词 ); 给(某人)赔偿(或赔款)
参考例句:
  • The marvelous acting compensated for the play's weak script. 本剧的精彩表演弥补了剧本的不足。
  • I compensated his loss with money. 我赔偿他经济损失。
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