据印度政府最新发布的统计数据显示，到2026年，印度总人口将达到14.71亿，从而取代中国成为世界上人口最多的国家。到2050年，印度的人口将超过16亿，这将严重威胁国家的经济发展。

densely¹ packed crowd in front of Jama Masjid in New Delhi." width="413" height="259" src="/upimg/100717/4_011631_1.jpg" />
A densely packed crowd in front of Jama Masjid in New Delhi.

India will overtake China to become the world's most populous² nation within the next 16 years, according to new government figures.

Officials say the rise in population to more than 1.6 billion by 2050 will threaten the country's rapid economic development.

According to the author, Dr Amarjeet Singh of the National Population Stabilisation Fund, India will need to reconsider its position to stop population growth fuelling poverty.

India's current population of 1.1 billion will swell³（膨胀，隆起） by 371 million in 2026, the report said, taking it beyond China's current 1.35 billion.

The scale of India's population explosion is highlighted by the fact that its most populous state, Uttar Pradesh（印度北方邦） , has more than 180 million people.

The report's publication provoked（激起，挑起） a clash between India's population experts and leading commentators⁴ over whether the rise will help or hinder（阻碍，打扰） the country's remarkable⁵ growth story. India's economy is currently growing at more than nine percent – second only to China.

Author Dr Amarjeet Singh warned that becoming the world's most populous country will trap several hundred million Indians in poverty.

"If we continue to grow at the current pace we will double our population in fifty years making sustainable development unattainable," he said.

His report blamed economic insecurity among the country's 500 million poor, which led to high rates of teenage pregnancies⁶. It revealed that a quarter of India's teenage girls were either pregnant or mothers by age eighteen.

Those girls who left school early were more likely to become teenage mothers, while those who remained at school showed lower fertility（生育力，肥沃） levels, the report claimed.

Dr Singh's report for the Ministry⁷ of Heath and Family Welfare was denounced by rival experts and commentators who said a growing nation could pay a "demographic dividend⁸（股息，奖金） " of even higher economic growth.

"This is absolute bunkum（假话，夸夸其谈的演说） ," said AR Nanda, executive director of the Population Foundation of India and former commissioner⁹ of India's census¹⁰（人口普查） .

"Over the next 25 years India will reap a demographic dividend of high economic growth providing we invest in human resources and health. We could see an economic surge," he added.

Pavan K Varma, one of India's most influential¹¹ social commentators, said India already produces 160,000 newly qualified¹² engineers and more than one million technicians every year, which will increase as its population and investment in education rise.

He said increasing education opportunities and the rise in access to television was already slowing the population growth rate.

"More than 500 million people in rural India are watching cable television and as more and more try to replicate¹³ the lifestyles they see portrayed¹⁴ so fleshily, they see how each child reduces the possibility of being part of this upwardly mobile curve," he said.