Ukraine accounts for some 6% of the of the world's wheat export market, while Crimea produces 7% of those exports. 

 

Freezing weather in the US and drought conditions elsewhere have added to worries about shortages.

 

Wheat futures¹ for May delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade are just under $7 a bushel compared with $5.50 in late January. 

 

However, there are no reports that the political standoff over Ukraine has affected² physical shipments.

 

Nitesh Shah, analyst³ at the investment firm ETF Securities, said: "There has not yet been a disruption to getting wheat out of the region. But that does not mean there won't be any problems.

 

"Combined with Russia, Ukrainian wheat makes up 17% of global exports. If there are sanctions, restrictions⁴ on Russian wheat or disruptions in Ukraine that could have a further upward effect on prices."

 

 

However, many commodities analysts⁵ say the weather is more of a concern. 

 

Drought conditions in Ukraine, Russia and the US southern "wheat belt" are also helping⁶ push up prices.

 

Mr Nitesh added that an "El Nino event", a warming of the Pacific waters off the South American coast, may take place in the spring or summer, bringing warmer and wetter weather to the US, boosting production.

 

He said: "An escalation⁷ in Ukraine is the focus at the moment, and could push prices up further. 

 

"But an El Nino event might reverse price gains, depending on its intensity⁸, even though it can also create droughts in China and Australia."

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