华尔街预计美国经济将于2023年出现衰退Wall Street is predictin
文章来源:未知 文章作者:enread 发布时间:2023-07-03 01:45 字体: [ ]  进入论坛
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尽管美国三月份就业增长强劲,家庭积蓄见涨,但是在通货膨胀“高烧不退”的情况下,美国前财政部长、投资大佬及各投行经济学家都纷纷预测美国将于2023年陷入经济衰退。
 
The US economy added nearly half a million jobs in March. The Dow Jones industrial average is within 6% of its record high. And US households accumulated roughly $2.5 trillion in excess savings1 throughout the pandemic.
三月份美国增加了近50万就业岗位,道琼斯工业平均指数涨幅创下6%的新高,美国家庭在疫情期间的超额储蓄总额累计达近2.5万亿美元(约合人民币15.9万亿元)。
Still, despite all the good news, predictions of an impending2 recession are widespread on Wall Street.
尽管这些都是好消息,但是华尔街却普遍认为美国经济即将陷入衰退。
Billionaire investors3, former Federal Reserve officials, and now even investment banks have repeatedly warned that the economy may hit a wall in 2023.
亿万富翁投资人、美联储前官员甚至连投资银行都反复警告美国经济可能在2023年出现危机。
What’s driving the recent string of downtrodden economic forecasts?
是什么导致了近期这一连串对美国经济的唱衰之声呢?
For some, it’s a matter of historical comparison. Former Treasury4 Secretary Lawrence Summers emphasized in a recent Washington Post op-ed that current economic conditions are undeniably reminiscent of previous pre-recession periods in US history.
对某些人而言,这是历史比较的结果。美国前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯在近期发表在《华盛顿邮报》上的一篇专栏文章中强调,当前的经济状况无疑让人联想起美国历史上的几次衰退前的情形。
"Over the past 75 years, every time inflation has exceeded 4% and unemployment has gone below 5%, the US economy has gone into a recession within two years,” Summers wrote.
萨默斯写道:“在过去75年间,每次通胀率超过4%,失业率降到5%以下,美国经济就会在两年内陷入衰退。”
Today, the US inflation rate is nearing 8%, and the unemployment rate fell to just 3.6% in March. As a result, Summers now sees an 80% chance of a US recession by next year.
如今,美国通胀率接近8%,失业率在三月份降至3.6%。因此,萨默斯认为美国有80%的几率将在明年陷入经济衰退。
The economists5 noted6 that the war in Ukraine has disrupted global supply chains and dramatically increased commodity prices and energy costs in the US and EU.
经济学家指出,乌克兰战争打乱了全球供应链,大幅提升了美国和欧盟的商品价格和能源开支。
CIBC’s Pzegeo said that inflation can often lead to wealth destruction as well, especially when rising consumer prices outpace wage growth.
加拿大帝国商业银行的波泽盖奥称,通货膨胀往往也会导致财富缩水,尤其是在消费价格涨幅超过工资涨幅时。
"It acts as a tax. So give it a little bit of time in the economy, and it’ll eat away at your wealth and set the stage for a recession,” he said.
他说:“通货膨胀的作用就如同征税。假以时日,你的财富将会逐渐缩水,从而为经济衰退埋下了伏笔。”
Recent GDP forecasts from the Conference Board have also led to fears that a recession could be on the horizon. US real GDP growth is now expected to slow to an annual rate of just 1.7% in the first quarter of 2022, compared with 7% annual growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2020.
世界大型企业联合会最近预测的国内生产总值也引发了人们对经济衰退的担忧。预测报告指出,2022年一季度美国的实际国内生产总值年化增速将放慢至1.7%,而2020年四季度美国的国内生产总值年化增速为7%。
For other economic forecasters, the Federal Reserve is the key to predictions of an impending recession.
其他经济预测者指出,美联储是预测美国是否会陷入经济衰退的关键。
Now, with pandemic restrictions7 fading and inflation moving to highs not seen in four decades, the Fed is faced with a difficult task: ensuring a so-called soft landing for the US economy. The goal is to raise interest rates and end QE in order to cool economic growth and combat inflation—all without causing a recession.
眼下,随着美国防疫限制措施逐步取消,通胀率创下四十年来的新高,美联储面临着一个艰巨的任务:确保美国经济实现所谓的软着陆。美联储的目标是提高利率,终结量化宽松政策,从而在不引发经济衰退的情况下给经济降温并抑制通胀。
Investing legend Carl Icahn—the founder8 and chairman of Icahn Enterprises who boasts an estimated fortune of over $15 billion—said in a March interview he believes the Fed isn’t up for the job.
投资界传奇人物卡尔·伊坎在三月份的一次访谈中表示,他认为美联储做不到。伊坎是资产超150亿美元的伊坎企业的创始人及董事长。
"I really don’t know if they can engineer a soft landing,” Icahn said. “I think there’s going to be a rough landing.”
伊坎说:“我真的不知道美联储要怎么实现软着陆。我认为一定会出现硬着陆。”
The billionaire now believes the US economy will see a recession “or even worse” by the end of next year, and Deutsche Bank’s economists agree.
这位亿万富翁现在认为美国经济将会在明年底前出现经济衰退“甚至更糟”,对此德意志银行的经济学家也表示认同。
"We no longer see the Fed achieving a soft landing. Instead, we anticipate that a more aggressive tightening9 of monetary10 policy will push the economy into a recession,” the bank’s economists, led by Matthew Luzzetti, wrote in a recent note.
以马修·卢泽蒂为首的德意志银行经济学家在近日的一份备忘录中写道:“我们不再认为美联储能够实现软着陆。我们预期更激进的货币紧缩政策将会使美国经济陷入衰退。”


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1 savings ZjbzGu     
n.存款,储蓄
参考例句:
  • I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假,那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
  • By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时,他的存款已全部用完。
2 impending 3qHzdb     
a.imminent, about to come or happen
参考例句:
  • Against a background of impending famine, heavy fighting took place. 即将发生饥荒之时,严重的战乱爆发了。
  • The king convoke parliament to cope with the impending danger. 国王召开国会以应付迫近眉睫的危险。
3 investors dffc64354445b947454450e472276b99     
n.投资者,出资者( investor的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
  • a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会
4 treasury 7GeyP     
n.宝库;国库,金库;文库
参考例句:
  • The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
  • This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。
5 economists 2ba0a36f92d9c37ef31cc751bca1a748     
n.经济学家,经济专家( economist的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
  • Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》
6 noted 5n4zXc     
adj.著名的,知名的
参考例句:
  • The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
  • Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。
7 restrictions 81e12dac658cfd4c590486dd6f7523cf     
约束( restriction的名词复数 ); 管制; 制约因素; 带限制性的条件(或规则)
参考例句:
  • I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
  • a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制
8 Founder wigxF     
n.创始者,缔造者
参考例句:
  • He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
  • According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说,罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。
9 tightening 19aa014b47fbdfbc013e5abf18b64642     
上紧,固定,紧密
参考例句:
  • Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前,检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
  • It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。
10 monetary pEkxb     
adj.货币的,钱的;通货的;金融的;财政的
参考例句:
  • The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
  • Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。
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