美国商务部日前宣布，美国第一季度年化国内生产总值下降1.6%，而第二季度下降0.9%。从非官方角度来看，这预示着美国陷入经济衰退。

 

The US economy shrank again in the last three months, unofficially signaling the start of a recession.

过去三个月美国经济再次缩水，从非官方的角度来看，这预示着美国经济开始衰退。

 

The commerce department announced Thursday that gross domestic product (GDP) – a broad measure of the price of goods and services – decreased at an annualized rate of 0.9% in the second quarter after falling at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first three months.

继第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）下降1.6%之后，美国商务部7月28日宣布，第二季度GDP下降了0.9%。国内生产总值是对商品和服务价值的广义衡量指标。

 

The bad news will be a major blow for the Biden administration as it prepares for a tough midterm election season. White House officials have tried to tamp¹ down talk of a recession, arguing that many parts of the economy remain strong.

这一噩耗对于正准备应对局势严峻的中期选举的拜登政府是一个沉重打击。白宫官员试图平息有关经济衰退的传言，坚称经济的多个方面仍保持强劲态势。

 

The growth rate stands in marked contrast to the robust² 6.9% annual increase in GDP recorded in the final quarter of 2021 when the economy roared back from Covid shutdowns.

二季度数据与2021年第四季度6.9%的GDP增长率形成了鲜明对比，当时美国经济正从新冠疫情中复苏。

 

The fast pace of growth contributed to soaring inflation – now running at 40-year highs – and the Federal Reserve’s decision to sharply increase interest rates in order to bring down prices.

美国经济快速增长致使出现40年以来最严重的通胀，美联储决定大幅上调利率以打压物价。

 

The changing economic environment was reflected in the GDP report. Consumer spending – the largest driver of the economy – slowed over the quarter but remained positive, rising 1% on an annual basis. Residential³ fixed⁴ investment, or home construction, dropped 14% on an annual basis and slowing business inventories⁵, goods produced but not yet sold by businesses, dragged down the GDP number.

二季度的GDP数据反映出美国当前持续变化的经济环境。作为经济最大驱动力的消费者支出在二季度减缓，但仍保持积极态势，年化增长率达到1%。居民固定资产投资（即商品房建设）却下跌了14%，而企业库存则在拖累GDP增长率。

 

Two quarters of negative GDP growth are widely regarded as a signal that the economy has gone into recession. But the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter⁶ of when recessions begin and end. While the GDP figures will play into the NBER’s final verdict, it also looks at a wider range of economic factors, including the jobs market, and is unlikely to give its decision soon.

GDP连续两个季度负增长被普遍视为经济陷入衰退的一个信号。然而，美国经济衰退与否，最终还需要美国国家经济研究局（NBER）裁定宣布。NBER的最终裁决会考虑GDP数据，也会考虑就业市场等更广泛的经济指标，因此不会很快做出裁决。

 

"The 0.9% annualized fall in GDP in the second quarter is disappointing but doesn’t mean the economy is in recession,” said Andrew Hunter, senior US economist⁷ at Capital Economics. “That said, the details show that higher rates and surging inflation are weighing on underlying⁸ demand, and we expect only a muted rebound⁹ in economic growth over the second half of the year.”

凯投宏观资深美国经济学家安德鲁·亨特表示：“美国GDP第二季度下降0.9%，这个数据令人失望，但并不意味着美国经济陷入衰退。即便如此，有细节表明，利率上调和通胀飙升对潜在需求产生了压力，美国经济在下半年仅可能出现温和反弹。”

 

In the meantime, pressure remains¹⁰ on the Biden administration. Surveys of consumer confidence are falling as recession fears grow and Joe Biden’s overall and economic approval poll numbers are at the lowest levels of his presidency¹¹.

与此同时，拜登政府仍面临压力。调查发现，随着对衰退的担忧加剧，消费者信心受损，拜登的总体支持率及其经济政策的支持率已跌至任内最低水平。

 

In a statement, Biden said it was “no surprise that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation. But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure.”

拜登在一份声明中表示，随着美联储采取行动降低通胀，经济放缓不足为奇。他还辩称，在面对历史性全球挑战的情况下，美国经济仍然处于良性轨道，过了这个过渡阶段，未来经济会变得更加强大和稳定。

 

Republicans countered that the report shows “Democrats’ reckless economic policies are destroying our economy”.

共和党人反驳称，GDP报告显示，民主党不计后果的经济政策正在摧毁美国经济。

 

The latest GDP figures came a day after the Fed announced another three-quarter of a percentage point increase in its benchmark interest rates as it fights to tame inflation.

最新GDP数据发布前一天，美联储为遏制通货膨胀，宣布再上调基准利率75个百分点。

 

Prices rose at an annual rate of 9.1% in the year to June, driven up by soaring costs for fuel, food and shelter.

在能源、食品价格和居住成本持续攀升的情况下，截至6月，美国消费者价格指数（CPI）上涨9.1%。

 

While parts of the US economy remain strong – most notably¹² the jobs market – the Covid pandemic continues to play havoc¹³ with global supplies and the war in Ukraine has pushed up energy prices.

虽然美国经济的部分领域仍然在强劲增长，尤其是就业市场，但新冠肺炎疫情持续破坏全球供应链，俄乌军事冲突致使能源价格飙升。

 

The confusing economic outlook has triggered sell-offs in stock markets around the world and led some economists¹⁴ to predict a recession is coming. Nearly 70% of leading academic economists polled by the Financial Times last month predicted the US economy will tip into a recession next year.

对经济前景的恐慌引发了全球股票抛售，一些经济学家预测衰退即将到来。6月，《金融时报》对近七成顶尖学术经济学家进行了民意调查，他们认为美国经济在2023年将陷入衰退。

 

Fed chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that he did not believe the US was now in a recession. But he said the Fed was prepared to keep raising rates in order to bring prices back down and that it was inevitable¹⁵ that such a move would slow the economy and affect the job market. “Price stability is what makes the whole economy work,” said Powell.

7月27日，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美国经济并未陷入衰退，美联储已准备继续加息，以使物价回落，而这将不可避免地会减缓经济增长，影响就业市场。他还表示，价格稳定是整个经济运行的动力。

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