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Chinanews, Shanghai, Apr. 3 – Two separate reports released recently show that the real estate market in Shanghai has begun to witness fundamental changes. After six years of rise, the housing price in Shanghai has begun to drop for the first time recently. The supply and demand relationship in the real estate market has also begun to change now, as the number of newly built houses will far exceed the demand for them. The vacancy1 rate of new houses will continue to rise in future.
The Ministry2 of Construction recently released a report that assessed the development of Chinese real estate market in cities and did some research on setting up a pre-warning system in the property market. The Real Estate Industry Research Center under the Shanghai Municipal Academy of Social Sciences and the Shanghai Property Economics Society participated in the research on the Shanghai part. The report shows that from 2000, the real estate index in Shanghai has kept rising. The index peaked in 2003 and started to decline from then on. At the same time, the rate of growth for housing price in Shanghai has also begun to drop gradually. At present, the growth rate of housing price is lower than the growth rate of commodity prices. In 2006, the housing price in Shanghai dropped by 0.5 percentage point, the first negative growth in six years. In another report, titled "Shanghai Property Market Situation during the Eleventh Five-Year Period: Its Developmental Environment, Opportunities, Enterprises' Countermeasures, and Suggestions", it says that the supply of newly built commercial houses in Shanghai will far exceed the demand for them in future. Information shows that since 2000, investment put in the new commercial housing projects and construction areas for these projects has increased remarkably3 in Shanghai. In 2003, the total area of commercial projects that had finished construction exceeded 20 million square meters and the total area of houses ready for sale reached 30 million square meters. Both the two figures exceeded 30 million square meters in 2004, when large amounts of investment were put into the real estate market, making it a really booming one. However, in 2006, due to the government's strict control measures, many short-term property speculators left the market and even long-term speculators became cautious about the changing market. At this time, it began to appear that there would only be a limited number of potential buyers in the property market. The supply and demand relationship also began to change. Only 90% of the newly built houses were rented or sold, indicating that housing supply had already exceeded the demand. Previously4, the Shanghai Municipal Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference has also carried out a research on the property market in Shanghai. The research report predicts that for at least three years to come, the supply of newly built commercial houses in Shanghai will exceed the demand for them.
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