美国经济“可能迎来一场大衰退”
文章来源:未知 文章作者:enread 发布时间:2022-05-05 05:09 字体: [ ]  进入论坛
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据美国有线电视新闻网报道,德意志银行经济学家4月26日警告称,美国经济“可能迎来一场大衰退”。该机构认为,美联储可能需要采取1980年代以来最激进的货币紧缩措施,才能让通胀率从四十年高位降下来,而这将导致美国明年陷入深度衰退。
 
Deutsche Bank raised eyebrows1 earlier this month by becoming the first major bank to forecast a US recession, albeit2 a "mild" one.
本月初,德意志银行成为第一家预测美国经济衰退的大型银行,该银行预测衰退的幅度“比较温和”。
 
Now, it's warning of a deeper downturn caused by the Federal Reserve's quest to knock down stubbornly high inflation.
但现在,德意志银行警告称,美联储寻求遏制居高不下的通胀,将导致经济进一步下滑。
 
"We will get a major recession," Deutsche Bank economists3 wrote in a report to clients on Tuesday.
4月26日,德意志银行经济学家在向客户提交的一份报告中写道:“我们将迎来一场大衰退。”
 
The problem, according to the bank, is that while inflation may be peaking, it will take a "long time" before it gets back down to the Fed's goal of 2%. That suggests the central bank will raise interest rates so aggressively that it hurts the economy.
德意志银行认为,问题在于,尽管通胀可能正在见顶,但要回到美联储2%的通胀目标还需要“很长一段时间”。这表明,美联储将大幅加息,从而损害经济。
 
"We regard it...as highly likely that the Fed will have to step on the brakes even more firmly, and a deep recession will be needed to bring inflation to heel," Deutsche Bank economists wrote in its report with the ominous4 title, "Why the coming recession will be worse than expected."
德意志银行经济学家在报告中称:“我们认为……美联储很有可能不得不更加坚定地踩下刹车,需要一场深度衰退来遏制通胀。”这份报告标题名为《为什么即将到来的经济衰退会比预期更糟》。
 
Consumer prices spiked5 by 8.5% in March, the fastest pace in 40 years. The jobs market remains6 on fire, with Moody's Analytics projecting that the unemployment rate will soon fall to the lowest level since the early 1950s.
美国3月份消费者价格指数飙升了8.5%,为40年来最高。就业市场依然强劲,穆迪分析预测失业率将很快降至20世纪50年代初以来的最低水平。
 
To make its case, Deutsche Bank created an index that tracks the distance between inflation and unemployment over the past 60 years and the Fed's stated goals for those metrics. That research, according to the bank, finds that the Fed today is "much further behind the curve" than it has been since the early 1980s, a period when extremely high inflation forced the central bank to raise interest rates to record highs, crushing the economy.
为了证明这一点,德意志银行创建了一个指数,追踪过去60年通货膨胀和失业率之间的距离,以及美联储为这些指标设定的目标利率。该银行称,这项研究发现,与20世纪80年代初以来相比,美联储如今“远远没有跟上形势”,当时极高的通货膨胀迫使美联储将利率提高到创纪录的水平,从而摧毁了经济。
 
History shows the Fed has "never been able to correct" even smaller overshoots of inflation and employment "without pushing the economy into a significant recession," Deutsche Bank said.
德意志银行表示,历史表明,美联储“从未能够在不将经济推入严重衰退的情况下纠正”即使是稍微过高的通胀和就业率。
 
Given that the job market has "over-tightened" , the bank said, "Something stronger than a mild recession will be needed to do the job."
鉴于劳动力市场已经过度紧张了,德意志银行称,“需要付出比温和衰退更大的代价来抑制通胀”。
 
The good news is that Deutsche Bank sees the economy rebounding7 by mid-2024 as the Fed reverses course in its inflation fight.
好消息是,德意志银行认为,随着美联储逆转抗击通胀的进程,经济将在2024年年中反弹。
 
Although Deutsche Bank is pessimistic -- it's the most bearish8 among major banks on Wall Street -- others contend this gloom-and-doom is overdone9.
德意志银行是华尔街主要银行中最悲观的,但有人认为这种悲观情绪有些过头了。
 
Goldman Sachs concedes it will be "very challenging" to bring down high inflation and wage growth, but stresses that a recession is "not inevitable10."
高盛承认,抑制高通胀和工资增长将“非常具有挑战性”,但强调衰退“并非不可避免”。
 
UBS is similarly hopeful that the economic expansion will continue despite the Fed's shift to inflation-fighting mode.
瑞士银行对经济增长将继续抱有希望,尽管美联储已转向遏制通胀的模式。
 
Deutsche Bank said the most important factor behind its more negative view is the likelihood that inflation will remain "persistently11 elevated for longer than generally anticipated."
德意志银行表示,其观点更为悲观的主要原因是,通胀持续升高的时间可能会比预期更长。
 
"The scourge12 of inflation has returned and is here to stay," Deutsche Bank said.
德意志银行表示:“高通胀的影响已经卷土重来,并将持续存在。”
 
If inflation does stay elevated, the Fed will be forced to consider more dramatic interest rate hikes. The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter-percentage point in March and Chairman Jerome Powell conceded last week that a half-point hike is "on the table" at next week's meeting.
如果通胀率持续升高,美联储将被迫考虑更大幅度加息。美联储在3月份将利率上调了0.25个百分点,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周承认,在下周的会议上,加息0.5个百分点是“可能的”。


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1 eyebrows a0e6fb1330e9cfecfd1c7a4d00030ed5     
眉毛( eyebrow的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • Eyebrows stop sweat from coming down into the eyes. 眉毛挡住汗水使其不能流进眼睛。
  • His eyebrows project noticeably. 他的眉毛特别突出。
2 albeit axiz0     
conj.即使;纵使;虽然
参考例句:
  • Albeit fictional,she seemed to have resolved the problem.虽然是虚构的,但是在她看来好象是解决了问题。
  • Albeit he has failed twice,he is not discouraged.虽然失败了两次,但他并没有气馁。
3 economists 2ba0a36f92d9c37ef31cc751bca1a748     
n.经济学家,经济专家( economist的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
  • Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》
4 ominous Xv6y5     
adj.不祥的,不吉的,预兆的,预示的
参考例句:
  • Those black clouds look ominous for our picnic.那些乌云对我们的野餐来说是个不祥之兆。
  • There was an ominous silence at the other end of the phone.电话那头出现了不祥的沉默。
5 spiked 5fab019f3e0b17ceef04e9d1198b8619     
adj.有穗的;成锥形的;有尖顶的
参考例句:
  • The editor spiked the story. 编辑删去了这篇报道。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • They wondered whether their drinks had been spiked. 他们有些疑惑自己的饮料里是否被偷偷搀了烈性酒。 来自辞典例句
6 remains 1kMzTy     
n.剩余物,残留物;遗体,遗迹
参考例句:
  • He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
  • The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。
7 rebounding ee4af11919b88124c68f974dae1461b4     
蹦跳运动
参考例句:
  • The strength of negative temperature concrete is tested with supersonic-rebounding method. 本文将超声回弹综合法用于负温混凝土强度检测。
  • The fundamental of basketball includes shooting, passing and catching, rebounding, etc. 篮球运动中最基本的东西包括投篮,传接球,篮板球等。
8 bearish xyYzHZ     
adj.(行情)看跌的,卖空的
参考例句:
  • It is foolish not to invest in stocks,so I will show her how to be bearish without them too,if she chooses.不投资股票是愚蠢的,因此如果她选择股票,我会向她展示怎样在没有长期潜力的情况下进行卖空。
  • I think a bearish market must be a good time for bargain-hunters to invest.我觉得熊市对于想买低的人可是个投资的大好机会。
9 overdone 54a8692d591ace3339fb763b91574b53     
v.做得过分( overdo的过去分词 );太夸张;把…煮得太久;(工作等)过度
参考例句:
  • The lust of men must not be overdone. 人们的欲望不该过分。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
  • The joke is overdone. 玩笑开得过火。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
10 inevitable 5xcyq     
adj.不可避免的,必然发生的
参考例句:
  • Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
  • The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。
11 persistently MlzztP     
ad.坚持地;固执地
参考例句:
  • He persistently asserted his right to a share in the heritage. 他始终声称他有分享那笔遗产的权利。
  • She persistently asserted her opinions. 她果断地说出了自己的意见。
12 scourge FD2zj     
n.灾难,祸害;v.蹂躏
参考例句:
  • Smallpox was once the scourge of the world.天花曾是世界的大患。
  • The new boss was the scourge of the inefficient.新老板来了以后,不称职的人就遭殃了。
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