文章来源:未知 文章作者:enread 发布时间:2013-05-02 07:14 字体: [ ]  进入论坛
Our global networks have generated many benefits and new opportunities. However, they have also established highways for failure propagation(传播,繁殖), which can ultimately result in human-made disasters. For example, today's quick spreading of emerging epidemics1 is largely a result of global air traffic, with serious impacts on global health, social welfare, and economic systems. Helbing's publication illustrates2 how cascade3 effects and complex dynamics4 amplify5 the vulnerability of networked systems. For example, just a few long-distance connections can largely decrease our ability to mitigate6 the threats posed by global pandemics. Initially7 beneficial trends, such as globalization, increasing network densities8, higher complexity9, and an acceleration10 of institutional decision processes may ultimately push human-made or human-influenced systems towards systemic instability, Helbing finds. Systemic instability refers to a system, which will get out of control sooner or later, even if everybody involved is well skilled, highly motivated and behaving properly. Crowd disasters are shocking examples illustrating11 that many deaths may occur even when everybody tries hard not to hurt anyone.
Networking system components12 that are well-behaved in separation may create counter-intuitive(直觉的) emergent system behaviors, which are not well-behaved at all. For example, cooperative behavior might unexpectedly break down as the connectivity of interaction partners grows. "Applying this to the global network of banks, this might actually have caused the financial meltdown in 2008," believes Helbing.
Globally networked risks are difficult to identify, map and understand, since there are often no evident, unique cause-effect relationships. Failure rates may change depending on the random13 path taken by the system, with the consequence of increasing risks as cascade failures progress, thereby14 decreasing the capacity of the system to recover. "In certain cases, cascade effects might reach any size, and the damage might be practically unbounded," says Helbing. "This is quite disturbing and hard to imagine." All of these features make strongly coupled, complex systems difficult to predict and control, such that our attempts to manage them go astray.
"Take the financial system," says Helbing. "The financial crisis hit regulators by surprise." But back in 2003, the legendary15 investor16 Warren Buffet17 warned of mega-catastrophic risks created by large-scale investments into financial derivatives18. It took 5 years until the "investment time bomb" exploded, causing losses of trillions of dollars to our economy. "The financial architecture is not properly designed," concludes Helbing. "The system lacks breaking points, as we have them in our electrical system." This allows local problems to spread globally, thereby reaching catastrophic dimensions.


1 epidemics 4taziV     
  • Reliance upon natural epidemics may be both time-consuming and misleading. 依靠天然的流行既浪费时间,又会引入歧途。
  • The antibiotic epidemics usually start stop when the summer rainy season begins. 传染病通常会在夏天的雨季停止传播。
2 illustrates a03402300df9f3e3716d9eb11aae5782     
给…加插图( illustrate的第三人称单数 ); 说明; 表明; (用示例、图画等)说明
  • This historical novel illustrates the breaking up of feudal society in microcosm. 这部历史小说是走向崩溃的封建社会的缩影。
  • Alfred Adler, a famous doctor, had an experience which illustrates this. 阿尔弗莱德 - 阿德勒是一位著名的医生,他有过可以说明这点的经历。 来自中级百科部分
3 cascade Erazm     
  • She watched the magnificent waterfall cascade down the mountainside.她看着壮观的瀑布从山坡上倾泻而下。
  • Her hair fell over her shoulders in a cascade of curls.她的卷发像瀑布一样垂在肩上。
4 dynamics NuSzQq     
  • In order to succeed,you must master complicated knowledge of dynamics.要取得胜利,你必须掌握很复杂的动力学知识。
  • Dynamics is a discipline that cannot be mastered without extensive practice.动力学是一门不做大量习题就不能掌握的学科。
5 amplify iwGzw     
  • The new manager wants to amplify the company.新经理想要扩大公司。
  • Please amplify your remarks by giving us some examples.请举例详述你的话。
6 mitigate EjRyf     
  • The government is trying to mitigate the effects of inflation.政府正试图缓和通货膨胀的影响。
  • Governments should endeavour to mitigate distress.政府应努力缓解贫困问题。
7 initially 273xZ     
  • The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
  • Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。
8 densities eca5c1ea104bef3058e858fe084fb6d0     
密集( density的名词复数 ); 稠密; 密度(固体、液体或气体单位体积的质量); 密度(磁盘存贮数据的可用空间)
  • The range of densities of interest is about 3.5. 有用的密度范围为3.5左右。
  • Densities presumably can be probed by radar. 利用雷达也许还能探测出气体的密度。
9 complexity KO9z3     
  • Only now did he understand the full complexity of the problem.直到现在他才明白这一问题的全部复杂性。
  • The complexity of the road map puzzled me.错综复杂的公路图把我搞糊涂了。
10 acceleration ff8ya     
  • All spacemen must be able to bear acceleration.所有太空人都应能承受加速度。
  • He has also called for an acceleration of political reforms.他同时呼吁加快政治改革的步伐。
11 illustrating a99f5be8a18291b13baa6ba429f04101     
给…加插图( illustrate的现在分词 ); 说明; 表明; (用示例、图画等)说明
  • He upstaged the other speakers by illustrating his talk with slides. 他演讲中配上幻灯片,比其他演讲人更吸引听众。
  • Material illustrating detailed structure of graptolites has been etched from limestone by means of hydrofluoric acid. 表明笔石详细构造的物质是利用氢氟酸从石灰岩中侵蚀出来。
12 components 4725dcf446a342f1473a8228e42dfa48     
(机器、设备等的)构成要素,零件,成分; 成分( component的名词复数 ); [物理化学]组分; [数学]分量; (混合物的)组成部分
  • the components of a machine 机器部件
  • Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。
13 random HT9xd     
  • The list is arranged in a random order.名单排列不分先后。
  • On random inspection the meat was found to be bad.经抽查,发现肉变质了。
14 thereby Sokwv     
  • I have never been to that city,,ereby I don't know much about it.我从未去过那座城市,因此对它不怎么熟悉。
  • He became a British citizen,thereby gaining the right to vote.他成了英国公民,因而得到了投票权。
15 legendary u1Vxg     
  • Legendary stories are passed down from parents to children.传奇故事是由父母传给孩子们的。
  • Odysseus was a legendary Greek hero.奥狄修斯是传说中的希腊英雄。
16 investor aq4zNm     
  • My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
  • The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。
17 buffet 8sXzg     
  • Are you having a sit-down meal or a buffet at the wedding?你想在婚礼中摆桌宴还是搞自助餐?
  • Could you tell me what specialties you have for the buffet?你能告诉我你们的自助餐有什么特色菜吗?
18 derivatives f75369b9e0ef2282b4d10e367e4ee2a9     
n.衍生性金融商品;派生物,引出物( derivative的名词复数 );导数
  • Many English words are derivatives of Latin words. 许多英语词来自拉丁语。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • These compounds are nitrosohydroxylamine derivatives. 这类合成物是亚硝基羟胺衍生物。 来自辞典例句
TAG标签: financial global networks