金融报告中动词和名词减少预示着股市泡沫
文章来源:未知 文章作者:enread 发布时间:2011-07-19 03:06 字体: [ ]  进入论坛
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When the language used by financial analysts1 and reporters becomes increasingly similar the stock market may be overheated, say scientists. After examining 18,000 online articles published by the Financial Times, The New York Times, and the BBC, computer scientists have discovered that the verbs and nouns used by financial commentators2 converge3(聚合) in a 'herd-like' fashion in the lead up to a stock market bubble. Immediately afterwards, the language disperses4.

The findings presented at the International Joint5 Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Barcelona, Spain, on Tuesday 19 July 2011, show that the trends in the use of words by financial journalists correlate closely with changes in the leading stock indices(股票指数) .

"Our analysis shows that trends in the use of words by financial journalists correlate closely with changes in the leading stock indices - the DJI, the NIKKEI-225, and FTSE-100," says Professor Mark Keane, Chair of Computer Science in University College Dublin, who was involved in the research.

"By plotting the distributions of words used in financial articles published online between 2006 and 2010 into a computer model, we were able to identify what we call 'verb convergence' and 'noun convergence – where the language used by financial journalists shows converging6 agreement."

"Our study shows that reporters converge on the same language - 'stocks rose again', 'scaled new heights', or 'soared' - as their commentaries became more uniformly positive in the lead up to the 2007 crash."

"They also appear to refer to a smaller-than-usual set of market events – presumably because of an increased fixation on a small number of rapidly rising stocks," explains Professor Keane.

"Google predicted car sales from analyses of search queries7, and the Amazon book recommender system captures consumer preferences by correlating book titles, so why not listen to the language used by financial commentators to see if it could help predict the stock market," says Aaron Gerow, who completed the research as part of his MSc in Computer Science at University College Dublin.



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1 analysts 167ff30c5034ca70abe2d60a6e760448     
分析家,化验员( analyst的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
  • I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。
2 commentators 14bfe5fe312768eb5df7698676f7837c     
n.评论员( commentator的名词复数 );时事评论员;注释者;实况广播员
参考例句:
  • Sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 体育解说员翻来覆去说着同样的词语,真叫人腻烦。
  • Television sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 电视体育解说员说来说去就是那么几句话,令人厌烦。 来自《简明英汉词典》
3 converge 6oozx     
vi.会合;聚集,集中;(思想、观点等)趋近
参考例句:
  • The results converge towards this truth.其结果趋近于这个真理。
  • Parallel lines converge at infinity.平行线永不相交。
4 disperses 0f01c862e7de8f3e68bed75ff8d34b9d     
v.(使)分散( disperse的第三人称单数 );疏散;驱散;散布
参考例句:
  • With controlled pace and sequence of construction, excess heat disperses. 在对施工进度和程序加以控制之后,多余的热量就能散掉。 来自辞典例句
  • Normally, turbulence disperses such pollutants quickly. 正常情况下,湍流将迅速驱散这类污染物。 来自辞典例句
5 joint m3lx4     
adj.联合的,共同的;n.关节,接合处;v.连接,贴合
参考例句:
  • I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤,肩膀脫臼了。
  • We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。
6 converging 23823b9401b4f5d440f61879a369ae50     
adj.收敛[缩]的,会聚的,趋同的v.(线条、运动的物体等)会于一点( converge的现在分词 );(趋于)相似或相同;人或车辆汇集;聚集
参考例句:
  • Plants had gradually evolved along diverging and converging pathways. 植物是沿着趋异和趋同两种途径逐渐演化的。 来自辞典例句
  • This very slowly converging series was known to Leibniz in 1674. 这个收敛很慢的级数是莱布尼茨在1674年得到的。 来自辞典例句
7 queries 5da7eb4247add5dbd5776c9c0b38460a     
n.问题( query的名词复数 );疑问;询问;问号v.质疑,对…表示疑问( query的第三人称单数 );询问
参考例句:
  • Our assistants will be happy to answer your queries. 我们的助理很乐意回答诸位的问题。
  • Her queries were rhetorical,and best ignored. 她的质问只不过是说说而已,最好不予理睬。 来自《简明英汉词典》
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