文章来源:未知 文章作者:enread 发布时间:2011-04-28 01:49 字体: [ ]  进入论坛

As China's economy continues to soar, its energy use and greenhouse gas emissions1 will keep on soaring as well—or so goes the conventional wisdom. A new analysis by researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) now is challenging that notion, one widely held in both the United States and China. Well before mid-century, according to a new study by Berkeley Lab's China Energy Group, that nation's energy use will level off, even as its population edges past 1.4 billion. "I think this is very good news,'' says Mark Levine, co-author of the report, "China's Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050" and director of the group. "There's been a perception(知觉,感觉) that China's rising prosperity means runaway2 growth in energy consumption. Our study shows this won't be the case."

Along with China's rise as a world economic power have come a rapid climb in energy use and a related boost in man-made carbon dioxide emissions. In fact, China overtook the United States in 2007 as the world's leading emitter of greenhouse gases.

Yet according to this new forecast, the steeply rising curve of energy demand in China will begin to moderate between 2030 and 2035 and flatten3 thereafter. There will come a time—within the next two decades—when the number of people in China acquiring cars, larger homes, and other accouterments of industrialized societies will peak. It's a phenomenon known as saturation4(饱和) . "Once nearly every household owns a refrigerator, a washing machine, air conditioners and other appliances, and once housing area per capita has stabilized5, per household electricity growth will slow,'' Levine explains.

Similarly, China will reach saturation in road and rail construction before the 2030-2035 time frame, resulting in very large decreases in iron and steel demand. Additionally, other energy-intensive industries will see demand for their products flatten.

The Berkeley Lab report also anticipates the widespread use of electric cars, a significant drop in reliance on coal for electricity generation, and a big expansion in the use of nuclear power—all helping6 to drive down China's CO2 emissions. Although China has temporarily suspended approvals of new nuclear power plant construction in the wake of the disaster at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, the long-range forecast remains7 unchanged.

Key to the new findings is a deeper look at patterns of energy demand in China: a "bottom-up" modeling system that develops projections8 of energy use in far greater detail than standard methods and which is much more time- and labor-intensive to undertake. Work on the project has been ongoing9 for the last four years. "Other studies don't have this kind of detail,'' says Levine. "There's no model outside of China that even comes close to having this kind of information, such as our data on housing stock and appliances."

Not only does the report examine demand for appliances such as refrigerators and fans, it also makes predictions about adoption10 of improvements in the energy efficiency of such equipment – just as Americans are now buying more efficient washing machines, cars with better gas-mileage, and less power-hungry light bulbs.

Berkeley Lab researchers Nan Zhou, David Fridley, Michael McNeil, Nina Zheng, and Jing Ke co-authored the report with Levine. Their study is a "scenario11 analysis" that forecasts two possible energy futures12 for China, one an "accelerated improvement scenario" that assumes success for a very aggressive effort to improve energy efficiency, the other a more conservative(保守的) "continued improvement scenario" that meets less ambitious targets. Yet both of these scenarios13, at a different pace, show similar moderation effects and a flattening14 of energy consumption well before 2050.


1 emissions 1a87f8769eb755734e056efecb5e2da9     
排放物( emission的名词复数 ); 散发物(尤指气体)
  • Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
  • Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。
2 runaway jD4y5     
  • The police have not found the runaway to date.警察迄今没抓到逃犯。
  • He was praised for bringing up the runaway horse.他勒住了脱缰之马受到了表扬。
3 flatten N7UyR     
  • We can flatten out a piece of metal by hammering it.我们可以用锤子把一块金属敲平。
  • The wrinkled silk will flatten out if you iron it.发皱的丝绸可以用熨斗烫平。
4 saturation wCTzQ     
  • The company's sales are now close to saturation in many western countries.这家公司的产品销售量在许多西方国家已接近饱和。
  • Road traffic has reached saturation point.公路交通已达到饱和点。
5 stabilized 02f3efdac3635abcf70576f3b5d20e56     
v.(使)稳定, (使)稳固( stabilize的过去式和过去分词 )
  • The patient's condition stabilized. 患者的病情稳定下来。
  • His blood pressure has stabilized. 他的血压已经稳定下来了。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
6 helping 2rGzDc     
  • The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
  • By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。
7 remains 1kMzTy     
  • He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
  • The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。
8 projections 7275a1e8ba6325ecfc03ebb61a4b9192     
预测( projection的名词复数 ); 投影; 投掷; 突起物
  • Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
  • The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。
9 ongoing 6RvzT     
  • The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
  • The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。
10 adoption UK7yu     
  • An adoption agency had sent the boys to two different families.一个收养机构把他们送给两个不同的家庭。
  • The adoption of this policy would relieve them of a tremendous burden.采取这一政策会给他们解除一个巨大的负担。
11 scenario lZoxm     
  • But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
  • This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。
12 futures Isdz1Q     
  • He continued his operations in cotton futures.他继续进行棉花期货交易。
  • Cotton futures are selling at high prices.棉花期货交易的卖价是很高的。
13 scenarios f7c7eeee199dc0ef47fe322cc223be88     
  • Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者,根据一些事故解说,石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
  • Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样,我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
14 flattening flattening     
n. 修平 动词flatten的现在分词
  • Flattening of the right atrial border is also seen in constrictive pericarditis. 右心房缘变平亦见于缩窄性心包炎。
  • He busied his fingers with flattening the leaves of the book. 他手指忙着抚平书页。
TAG标签: China energy carbon