中国南方机车车辆工业集团公司(China South Locomotive and Rolling Stock)计划6月在上海和香港两地进行首次公开发行(IPO)，筹集多达21亿美元的资金。这表明，尽管沪港两地股市大跌，但市场仍存在对中国基础设施类股的需求。

China South Locomotive and Rolling Stock plans to raise up to $2.1bn in a dual¹ Shanghai and Hong Kong initial public offering scheduled for June, reflecting continued demand for China infrastructure² stocks in spite of the slump³ in both markets.

据知情人士透露，中国南车拟在上海发行约25%的股份，另外在香港发行15%的股份，发行计划仍有待中国监管部门的最终批准。

China Southern Railway, as the company is also known, is set to float about 25 per cent of its shares in Shanghai and another 15 per cent in Hong Kong, pending⁵ final approval from Chinese regulators, according to a person familiar with the transaction.

上证综指已从去年10月的高位下跌近50%，同期内香港恒生指数的跌幅为25%。

Shanghai’s composite index has fallen by almost 50 per cent from its October peak, compared with a 25 per cent decline in Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng index during the same period.

尽管在过去几个月中，两地股市的下跌迫使许多企业及其保荐人取消了上市计划，但中国基础设施领域的发行项目逆势而动。今年3月，另一家铁路基础设施企业中国铁建(China Railway Construction)通过沪港两地的首次公开发行筹资57亿美元，其发行获得了大幅超额认购。中国南车的首次公开发行由麦格理(Macquarie)和中国国际金融有限公司(China International Capital Corp)担任保荐人。麦格理和中金公司昨日均拒绝置评。

While the declines in both markets have forced many companies and their sponsors to scrap⁶ listing plans over the past few months, the country’s infrastructure projects have bucked⁷ the trend. In March, China Railway Construction, another railway infrastructure company, raised $5.7bn in a dual Shanghai and Hong Kong offering that was heavily oversubscribed. China Southern Railway’s IPO is being arranged by Macquarie and China International Capital Corp. Macquarie and CICC declined to comment yesterday.

中国铁建吸引了知名投资者的强劲需求，其中包括香港大亨李兆基和郑裕彤、新加坡的淡马锡(Temasek)，甚至美国耶鲁大学(Yale University)。

China Railway Construction attracted strong demand from high-profile investors⁸ such as Hong Kong tycoons⁹ Lee Shau-kee and Cheng Yu-tung, Temasek of Singapore and even Yale University.

预计中国南车也将吸引到类似的一批 “基础投资者”，他们将优先获得新股认购权，作为回报，他们将承诺至少在一年内不抛出股票。

China Southern Railway is expected to sign up a similar roster¹⁰ of “cornerstone investors”, who are given preferential access to an offering in return for a commitment not to sell the shares for at least one year.

知情人士称：“基础投资者（对中国南车）很感兴趣，但目前还没到所有人都已敲定的程度。
中国3月份消费者价格指数(CPI)同比增长8.3%，较2月份8.7%的近12年高点有所放缓。CPI增长放缓反映出在2008年初的严重雪灾后，食品供应出现了复苏。综合3月份的数据，今年第一季度中国消费者价格同比上涨8%。

China's consumer price index for March eased to 8.3% YoY, from the near 12-year record of 8.7% in February. The moderation in CPI reflected a recovery in food supplies, after the severe winter storms in early-2008. Taking into account the March figure, consumer prices for the first quarter have risen by 8% YoY.

猪肉、蛋、粮食等主要食品相对短缺，是中国近来通胀背后的驱动因素，短缺源自于一些结构性因素和周期性因素的综合影响。随着中国收入的增长，对肉类和奶制品的需求有所上升——这对玉米和大豆等饲料的需求产生了倍乘效应。

China's recent inflation has been driven by the relative scarcity¹¹ of staple¹² food items such as pork, eggs and grains - which is due to a combination of structural¹³ and cyclical factors. As incomes rise in China, demand increases for meat and dairy products - which has a multiplier effect on demand for feed grains such as corn and soy.

为了应对围绕中国食品供应稳定性的担忧，政府出台了一些价格管控举措，并为种植粮食和饲养牲畜的农户提供了一系列激励措施。本月早些时候发布的国务院工作日程，将严控粮食出口列为今年的要务。农业部近期发布的数据表明，1至2月份中国农产品贸易从去年同期的顺差转为逆差，这反映出国内供应短缺及政府措施的影响。

Responding to concern about the stability of the country's food supplies, the government has introduced price controls and provided a series of incentives¹⁴ to grain and livestock¹⁵ farmers. The State Council's work agenda for 2008, published earlier this month, cited strict controls of grain exports as a priority for the year. Reflecting a domestic supply shortfall and the impact of government measures, recently released data from the Ministry¹⁶ of Agriculture show that China's trade in farm produce was in deficit¹⁷ in the Jan-Feb period, from a surplus in the same period last year.

价格管控有所放松

Price controls ease

随着通胀从2月份天气因素导致的上升中回落，一些食品企业向政府申请提价获准。国家发改委3月26日批准光明牛奶(Bright Dairy)和石家庄三鹿提价，4月1日批准丰益国际(Wilmar)的某些食用油提价。

With inflation easing from a weather-induced spike¹⁸ in February, some food companies have successfully applied¹⁹ to the government for the right to increase prices. The NDRC approved price increases for Bright Dairy and Shijiazhuang Sanlu's selected milk products on March 26 and Wilmar's selected retail²⁰ edible²¹ oil on April 1.

尽管中国政府在价格管控方面表现出了一定的灵活性，但这并不一定显示通胀期的结束。实际上，在未来数月，食品价格上涨将会给CPI中的食品部分带来一定影响。

Although the government has shown flexibility²² with price controls, this does not necessarily signal an end of the inflationary period. Indeed, higher food prices will have an impact on the food component²³ of CPI in the months ahead.

进一步加息空间？

Further room to raise rates?

美联储(Federal reserve)的降息行动，引起了中国当局对于两国利差不断扩大的关注，这将给人民币带来上行压力。第一季度中国的资金流入有所提速，原因是投资者押注于人民币升值及中国国内利率上调。 The US Federal reserve's easing program has made authorities mindful of the widening interest rate differential, which exerts upward pressure on the yuan. Fund inflows into China have accelerated in the first quarter, as investors bet on a stronger yuan and rising domestic interest rates.

不过，中国央行(PboC)行长近日指出，央行方面将保持警惕，并暗示仍有进一步加息空间。目前仍存在进一步紧缩货币政策的可能性，但鉴于当前一轮通胀主要是一种供应面的现象，人们并不清楚加息举措的有效性。在目前全球经济放缓的情况下，对于经济增长的担忧，也限制了紧缩货币政策的空间。

Nevertheless, China's central bank governor recently indicated that the PBoC would remain vigilant²⁴ and suggested there was room to raise interest rates further. Tighter monetary²⁵ policy remains²⁶ a possibility, but with the current bout⁴ of inflation largely a supply-side phenomenon, it is not clear how effective interest rate rises would be. In the midst of a global slowdown, the scope for a tighter monetary policy is also constrained²⁷ by concerns about growth.

对于经济增长的担忧？

Concerns about growth?

第一季度中国经济增长率为10.6%，较去年第四季度的11.2%有所放缓。

China's economy expanded by 10.6% in the first quarter, from 11.2% in 4Q07.

陷于困境的美国经济需求下降，已经影响了中国的出口数据。第一季度中国出口同比增幅从上年同期的27.8%降至21.4%，一些官员对出口放缓对国内经济的潜在影响感到忧虑。

Lower demand from a troubled US economy has already dented²⁸ China's export figures. With China's export growth slowing to 21.4% YoY in the first quarter, from 27.8% in the same period last year, officials are concerned about the potential impact on the domestic economy.

2007年，总出口相当于总体经济的36%，而贸易顺差在中国国内生产总值(GDP)增长中所占的比例约为20%。贸易顺差一直是流动性过剩的一个主要来源，而贸易顺差的不断收窄，有利于抵御通胀。但是，这同时也是担心经济增长可能放缓的中国政府的另一隐忧。

Total exports amounted to 36% of the overall economy in 2007, while the trade surplus accounts for about a fifth of China's GDP growth. A narrowing of the trade surplus, which has been a major source of excess liquidity²⁹, would support the fight against inflation. But it is also an additional concern for authorities concerned about a potential slowdown in growth.

中国国务院网站4月1日发布的一项公告强调了2008年政府的工作要点。首要目标表明，政府打算优化宏观调控措施的使用，同时保持经济增长势头、防止经济减速。这是数年来中国高层领导人首次对经济增长放缓表示担忧。未来一段时期，决策者将努力在遏制通胀和保障经济稳步增长这两大目标之间保持一种良好的平衡。

An announcement posted on China's State Council web site on April 1 highlighted the government's priorities for 2008. The first of several objectives expressed the government's aim to optimize³⁰ the use of macro-tightening measures, while maintaining the momentum³¹ of economic growth and preventing a slowdown. This is the first time in several years that China's senior leaders appear concerned about an economic slowdown. Going forward, policy makers³² will try to maintain a fine balance between the twin objectives of containing inflation and ensuring a steady pace of growth in the economy.

“Cornerstones are very interested [in China Southern Railway] but it’s not at the stage where anyone has signed up yet,” the person said.

今年1、2月份，中国增强铁路基础设施领域投资的需求，以一种出人意料的方式表现出来，50年不遇的雪灾致使交通网络陷于瘫痪。

China’s need for increased investment in railway infrastructure was illustrated³³ in dramatic fashion in January and February, when the country’s worst winter storms in 50 years paralysed transportation networks.

在这场危机中，政府奋力保证将煤炭从北方矿区运到全国各地的电厂。

During the crisis, the government struggled to guarantee the delivery of coal from northern mines to power plants across the country.

雪灾还致使数百万农民工滞留在南部的广东省，他们无法在广州搭乘火车，返回内陆省份与家人团聚、共度春节。

The winter weather also stranded³⁴ millions of migrant workers in southern Guangdong province after they were unable to board trains in Guangzhou to spend the Chinese lunar new year with their families in inland provinces.

记者无法与中国南车方面取得联系，以获取其置评。

China Southern Railway could not be reached for comment.

 

上一篇：2008年4月16日 业内人士：中国南车拟在沪港两地上市 下一篇：2008年4月18日 中国金钼股份首日交易表现出色