盖茨：2035年世界上将几乎没有贫穷的国家

 

As snowy Davos becomes engulfed¹ in the hustle² and bustle³ of another World Economic Forum⁴, Microsoft (MSFT) founder⁵ Bill Gates took the opportunity to deliver an upbeat（乐观的） message in his annual newsletter.

 

The 25-page report, written by Gates and his wife Melinda, who are co-chairs of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, argued that the world is a better place than it has ever been before.

 

Gates predicted that by 2035, there would be almost no poor countries left in the world, using today's World Bank classification of low-income countries -- even after adjusting for inflation.

 

"Poor countries are not doomed⁶ to stay poor. Some of the so-called developing nations have already developed," he said in his annual note, published on Tuesday.

 

"I am optimistic enough about this that I am willing to make a prediction. By 2035, there will be almost no poor countries left in the world."

 

Gates -- who remains⁷ a part-time chairman of Microsoft -- added that by this point in time, almost all countries will be "lower-middle income" or richer.

 

Countries will learn from their most productive neighbors and benefit from innovations like new vaccines⁸, better seeds, and the digital revolution, he said.

 

"By almost any measure, the world is better than it has ever been. People are living longer, healthier lives. Extreme poverty rates have been cut in half in the past 25 years. Child mortality is plunging⁹. Many nations that were aid recipients¹⁰ are now self-sufficient," he said.

 

The three biggest myths, according to Gates, are that poor countries are doomed to stay poor, that foreign aid is a big waste and that saving lives leads to overpopulation.

 

Using data from academics, the World Bank and the United Nations, he makes the opposite case -- arguing that the world is getting better.

 

"I understand why people might hold these negative views. This is what they see in the news. Bad news happens in dramatic events that are easy for reporters to cover," he said.

 

"Countries are getting richer, but it's hard to capture that on video. Health is improving, but there's no press conference for children who did not die of malaria¹¹."

 

According to the World Bank's preliminary estimates, the extreme poverty rate was halved¹² between 1990 and 2010. This meant that 21 percent of people in the developing world lived on or below $1.25 a day, down from 43 percent in 1990 and 52 percent in 1981.

 

The World Bank last year set a goal of decreasing the global extreme poverty rate to no more than 3 percent by 2030.

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