游戏策略数学模型能用来探测恐怖主义网络？

The answer is yes, according to a paper in the SIAM Journal on Discrete¹ Mathematics. In a paper published in the journal last month, authors Anthony Bonato, Dieter Mitsche, and Pawel Pralat describe a mathematical model to disrupt flow of information in a complex real-world network, such as a terrorist organization, using minimal² resources.

 

Terror networks are comparable in their structure to hierarchical（分层的） organization in companies and certain online social networks, where information flows in one direction from a source, which produces the information or data, downwards³ to sinks, which consume it. Such networks are called hierarchical social networks.

 

"In such networks, the flow of information is often one way," explains author Pawel Pralat. "For example, a celebrity⁴ such as Justin Bieber sends out a tweet, which is sent to millions of his followers⁵. These followers send out their own retweets, and so on. We may therefore view hierarchical social networks as directed networks without cycles, or directed acyclic graphs（有向非循环图） (DAGs)."

 

Here, there is no requirement for reciprocity（相互作用） (the celebrity does not necessarily follow his or her followers). Similarly, in a terrorist network, the leaders pass plans down to the foot soldiers, and usually only one messenger needs to receive the message for the plan to be executed.

 

Disruption of the flow of information would correspond to halting the spread of news in an online social network or intercepting⁶ messages in a terror network.

 

The authors propose a generalized stochastic model for the flow and disruption of information based on a two-player outdoor game called "Seepage," where players who depict⁷ agents attempt to block the movement of another player, an intruder, from a source node to a sink. "The game -- motivated by the 1973 eruption⁸ of the Eldfell volcano in Iceland -- displays some similarities to an approach used in mathematical counterterrorism, where special kinds of DAGs are used to model the disruption of terrorist cells," says Pralat.

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