东亚正引领世界经济复苏

East Asia's emerging economies are leading world recovery with a likely growth rate this year of 8.8%, the Asian Development Bank says.

亚洲发展银行称，东亚新兴经济正在引领世界经济的复苏，本年度经济增长速度达到8.8%。

That will soften¹ to 7.3%, said the ADB in its twice-annual regional report.

External conditions - notably² the weakness of the US and European economies - continue to affect prospects³ however, it added.

The bank warned that currency wars, inflation and protectionism remained serious challenges.

"The unsynchronised global recovery - red-hot growth in emerging economies against tepid⁴, uncertain recovery in advanced economies - pose policy challenges for emerging East Asia," said the ADB.

"Competitive non-appreciation - or 'currency wars' as some put it - may escalate⁵ into（逐步升级为） trade wars as countries try to preserve international competitiveness and exports."

The inflationary pressures and rises in asset prices also pose policy dilemmas⁶, the bank said.

Australia left interest rates unchanged (at 4.75%) citing the global uncertainties⁷ and the strong local currency which the financial authorities said would help curtail⁸ inflation.

Economic stimulus⁹ packages are beginning to be rolled back too, the Bank said, which would contribute to the slower growth expected next year.

'Robust¹⁰'

However, robust recovery was the norm across the 14 economies reviewed by the bank, driven by stronger domestic demand.

"After slowing sharply in 2008 and 2009, the East Asian economies recovered strongly in 2010 which has led GDP growth back closer to 2007 levels," said the bank.

The region had reached a record 9.6% growth in 2007.

Many of the region's stock markets also bounced back sharply, the bank said in the December edition of its twice-annual Asia Economic Monitor.

China's economy expanded by 9.6% in the third quarter, and Singapore by 10.6%, but the bank saw signs this pace would be easing off.

It also warned that the overall outlook remains¹¹ "highly uncertain".

"A weaker- and longer-than-expected recovery process in advanced economies will further delay policy normalisation, increasing economic distortions（畸变，扭曲） and lowering long-term growth prospects," the report said.

The report examined the Asean economies - Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Burma - as well as China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea.