Recession in UK 'still not over' 英国经济衰退“仍未结束”

A leading business group has cast doubt on whether the UK economy emerged from recession in the third quarter of 2009.

一个主要企业集团对于英国09年经济在第三季度能否拜托衰退持怀疑态度。

Confidence among manufacturers is at its highest level since early 2008

The British Chambers¹ of Commerce (BCC) said business confidence was improving but the economy was still "frail（脆弱的，虚弱的）".

Official GDP figures are due next week. If they show no growth, it will be the first time the UK has endured six successive quarters without growth.

Separately, UK retail² sales rose 2.8% from September 2008, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) said.

But the BRC warned that "we mustn't get carried away" - as the figures are compared with a "weak performance" last September when turmoil³（骚动，混乱） in the financial markets hit consumer confidence.

'On the brink⁴'

The BCC surveyed more than 5,500 companies and found that confidence strengthened across the board.

Confidence among manufacturers was at its highest level since the beginning of 2008.

But despite "good progress" being made in both the manufacturing and service sectors⁵, domestic orders and sales were still down on the previous quarter, the BCC said.

"The Q3 results support our assessment⁶ that the UK economy is on the brink of leaving recession," David Kern, chief economist⁷ at the BCC said.

"However, the improvement is not sufficiently⁸ strong to allow us to conclude without doubt that GDP has already returned to positive growth."

Last week, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research also estimated that the economy did not grow in the June to September quarter.