Central bank faces a dilemma in interest raise issue

时间：2007-11-19 07:56:52

（单词翻译:单击）

Chinanews, Guangzhou, Nov. 19 – According to information released from the National Statistics Bureau, the CPI growth rate, after it slightly dropped in September, once again climbed to a high point of 6.5% in October. The high growth rate was almost on a par1 with the growth rate that once occurred in August, which was also regarded as the highest growth point in ten years. Some market analysts3 predict that the central bank will raise the interest rate after all the economic data of October have been announced, the Information Times reported.

 

A recent survey carried out by the China Youth Daily and Tencent website shows that about 90% of the respondents think their life quality has been affected4 by the current round of price hikes. Nearly 80% of them think food quality has worsened since this summer. It seems that the low- and middle-income group are affected most by the current price hike. About 14,000 people respond to the survey.

 

However, according to Zhu Baoliang, chief economist5 at the State Information Center's Economic Prediction Department, the current round of price hikes has been mostly caused by the price rise in food but has not affected other commodities yet. There is not an overall price rise in society.

 

Of the eight major categories of goods included in the CPI calculation, the prices of five categories of goods have always been climbing while the prices of the rest of the goods are declining. Such situation has remained so for several months. An all-round inflation should be a general price hike in commodities. However, if we look at the core CPI figure (in which the price of food and energy prices are excluded), we can see that China has not experienced an overall price rise at present. So there is no need for people to worry about it, said Yao Jingyuan, chief economist at the National Statistics Bureau.

 

Faced with the possible inflation pressure, the central bank has raised the interest rate five times this year. Meanwhile, related financial and taxation6 departments have reduced the income tax rate. As a result of these measures, the one-year deposit interest rate has been raised to 3.87% and related loan rate raised to 7.29%. Despite these efforts, the interest rate rise still can not keep up with CPI growth rate. Considering this, some market analysts expect that the central bank will further raise the interest rate in future.

 

“If the central bank doesn't raise the interest rate, it might send a signal that the market can tolerate such price hike. However, the central bank is upset with the current price hike and will take stern measures to control it,” said Li Maoyu, an analyst2 at Changjiang Securities, Co., Ltd.

 

Some analysts point out that the central bank is being put in a dilemma7 in interest rise issue. At present, the difference between Renminbi and US dollar exchange rate has been reduced from 245 basis points at the beginning of this year to 70 basis points now. It is likely that the US Federal Reserves might further reduce its interest rate. When the dollar continues to depreciate8 and US government keeps lowering the interest rate, more hot money might flow into China if China further raises the interest rate.

 
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1 par OK0xR     
n.标准，票面价值，平均数量；adj.票面的，平常的，标准的
参考例句：
  • Sales of nylon have been below par in recent years.近年来尼龙织品的销售额一直不及以往。
  • I don't think his ability is on a par with yours.我认为他的能力不能与你的能力相媲美。
2 analyst gw7zn     
n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家
参考例句：
  • What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
  • The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。
3 analysts 167ff30c5034ca70abe2d60a6e760448     
分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )
参考例句：
  • City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
  • I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。
4 affected TzUzg0     
adj.不自然的，假装的
参考例句：
  • She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
  • His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。
5 economist AuhzVs     
n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人
参考例句：
  • He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
  • He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。
6 taxation tqVwP     
n.征税，税收，税金
参考例句：
  • He made a number of simplifications in the taxation system.他在税制上作了一些简化。
  • The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
7 dilemma Vlzzf     
n.困境，进退两难的局面
参考例句：
  • I am on the horns of a dilemma about the matter.这件事使我进退两难。
  • He was thrown into a dilemma.他陷入困境。
8 depreciate Pmpz0     
v.降价，贬值，折旧
参考例句：
  • The computer value will depreciate by $ 500 in the first year.在头一年里这台电脑会贬值500美元。
  • If you neglect this property,it will depreciate.如果你忽视这份资产，它无形中就贬值了。

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