全球变暖放缓并非表明气候变化的结束

A slow-down in global warming is not a sign that climate change is ending, but a natural blip in an otherwise long-term upwards¹ trend, research shows. In a detailed² study of more than 200 years' worth of temperature data, results backed previous findings that short-term pauses in climate change are simply the result of natural variation.

 

The findings support the likelihood that a current hiatus in the world's year-on-year temperature increases - which have stalled since 1998 - is temporary.

 

Scientists from the University of Edinburgh analysed real-world historic climate records from 1782 to 2000, comparing them with computerised climate models for the same timescale. 

 

They were able to separate the influence on climate trends of man-made warming - such as from greenhouse gas emissions³ - and of natural influences in temperature - such as periods of intense sunlight or volcanic⁴ activity.

 

This showed that random⁵ variations can cause short term interruptions to climate patterns in the form of a pause or surge in warming, in both the real data and in the models, typically lasting⁶ up to a decade. Extreme natural forces, such as strong volcanic eruptions⁸, were shown to disrupt climate trends for decades. 

 

The research highlights the impact of volcanic eruptions on climate, when particles produced can reflect sunlight from Earth, causing long-lasting cooling. The eruption⁷ of Mount Tambora in Indonesia in 1815 was among the biggest in recent times, causing a so-called year without summer. Scientists estimate that, if it occurred today, it would cause a 20-year climate hiatus.

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