赛马奔跑的速度正在逐渐加快

Despite a general consensus¹ among scientists and in the racing² industry that racehorse speed has plateaued, a new study from the University of Exeter has found that racehorses are getting quicker. Further research is required to determine whether the increased speeds have a genetic³ basis or are the result of improved training, jockey tactics or other environmental factors. It had appeared that racehorse speeds were not improving and previous studies concluded that thoroughbred racehorses may have reached the limits of their abilities. However these studies only analysed the winning time of a small number of middle and long distance elite⁴ races and did not take factors such as ground softness into account.

 

The researchers analysed a large data set of racing records that gave a detailed⁵ overview⁶ of thoroughbred performance at the elite level since the mid-1800s, and at both the elite level and in the racehorse population as a whole since 1997.

 

The full data set of 616,084 race times run by 70,388 horses shows that race winning speeds have improved greatly since 1850, and increases in speed have been greatest in shorter distance races. Data from 1997-2012 reveal that the improvements in performance are on-going, despite increases in handicap weight, and continue to be driven largely by increases in speeds of sprinters, especially at the elite level.

 

The slower rate of contemporary improvement in speed over middle and long distances could indicate that horses are reaching a performance limit at these distances or could suggest that breeders favour speed over endurance.

 

Patrick Sharman from the Centre for Ecology and Conservation at the University of Exeter's Penryn Campus in Cornwall said: "There has been a general consensus over the last 30 years that horse speeds appeared to be stagnating⁸. Our study shows that this is not the case and, by using a much larger dataset than previously⁹ analysed, we have revealed that horses have been getting faster. Interestingly, both the historical and current rate of improvement is greatest over sprint⁷ distances. The challenge now is to find out whether this pattern of improvement has a genetic basis".

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