10月份我国经济延续恢复态势

根据国家统计局最新发布的数据，10月份我国经济延续了恢复态势，生产需求继续恢复，就业物价保持稳定，新动能积蓄增强，民生保障有力有效，发展韧性继续彰显。

 

China's economy is expected to regain¹ steam in the fourth quarter with the government's effective measures to coordinate² COVID control and economic development along with stimulus³ policy measures gradually taking effect, economists⁴ and analysts⁷ said.

经济学家和分析人士表示，随着政府采取有效措施协调新冠肺炎疫情防控和经济发展，以及刺激政策措施逐步生效，第四季度国民经济将继续保持稳定恢复态势。

 

They said the recovery trend in industrial production will likely continue for the remainder of the year, and expect to see a gradual improvement in key economic indicators⁸, including investment and consumption.

他们表示，今年年底前，工业生产将保持复苏趋势，预计投资和消费等关键经济指标将逐步改善。

 

Their comments came after key economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday showed China's economy has maintained a recovery trend in October, with steady growth in industrial production and investment, while consumption was still weak amid pressure from renewed COVID-19 outbreaks.

此前，国家统计局周二发布的关键经济数据显示，中国经济在10月份保持复苏趋势，工业生产和投资稳步增长，但在新冠肺炎疫情再次暴发的压力下，消费仍然疲软。

 

The NBS said China's value-added industrial output grew 5 percent in October from a year earlier after a 6.3 percent rise in September. And fixed-asset investment increased 5.8 percent in the January-October period, compared with a 5.9 percent rise in the first three quarters.

国家统计局表示，中国10月规模以上工业增加值同比增长5%，前值为6.3%。1-10月全国固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长5.8%，1-9月为5.9%。

 

Fu Linghui, an NBS spokesman, said at a news conference on Tuesday that China's economy has sustained recovery momentum⁹ despite facing pressure from the increasingly complex and challenging global environment and frequent COVID-19 outbreaks at home.

国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖在周二的新闻发布会上表示，尽管面临着日益复杂的国际环境挑战和国内新冠肺炎疫情频发的压力，中国经济仍保持复苏势头。

 

Looking ahead, Fu said the economy will likely recover steadily¹⁰ with existing supportive policies taking effect gradually.

付凌晖表示，展望未来，随着现有的支持政策逐步生效，经济会稳步复苏。

 

He said China's steady economic performance in 2022 has showcased the strong resilience of the economy, and growth will continue to recover in the future, supported by improved domestic demand.

他说，2022年中国经济平稳运行，显示了经济的强大韧性，在内需改善的支持下，未来增长将继续复苏。

 

When it comes to the latest economic data, Lou Feipeng, a senior economist⁵ at Postal¹¹ Savings¹² Bank of China, said new growth drivers have played a key role in boosting steady economic growth in October.

谈到最新的经济数据，中国邮政储蓄银行高级经济学家娄飞鹏表示，新的增长动力在推动10月份经济稳定增长方面发挥了关键作用。

 

The NBS said value-added industrial output from high-tech¹³ manufacturing grew 10.6 percent year-on-year in October, 1.3 percentage points higher than that in the previous month. And investment in high-tech industries jumped 20.5 percent in the first 10 months.

国家统计局表示，10月份，高技术制造业增加值同比增长10.6%，较9月份加快1.3个百分点。今年1到10月高技术产业投资增长20.5%。

 

Considering the government's effective measures to stabilize¹⁴ growth and the property market as well as its fine-tuned pandemic-prevention measures, Lou said the economy will likely regain steam in the fourth quarter with steady improvement in industrial production, consumption and real estate investment, and China still has room for fiscal¹⁵ and monetary¹⁶ policy support.

娄飞鹏表示，考虑到政府采取的稳定经济增长和房地产市场的有效措施，以及优化的疫情防控措施，随着工业生产、消费和房地产投资的稳步改善，第四季度国民经济将继续保持稳定恢复态势。中国仍有财政和货币政策支持的空间。

 

Zhou Maohua, an analyst⁶ at China Everbright Bank, attributed the steady growth in industrial production to continued recovery in domestic demand, a series of stimulus policies taking effect and resilience in foreign trade.

中国光大银行分析师周茂华将工业生产的稳步增长归因于国内需求的持续复苏、一系列刺激政策的生效以及外贸的韧性。

 

Zhou said the drop in retail¹⁷ sales is mainly due to renewed COVID-19 outbreaks, saying consumption will likely improve amid more precise COVID-19 containment¹⁸ and intensified¹⁹ efforts to expand domestic demand and stabilize growth.

周茂华表示，零售额下降主要是由于新冠肺炎疫情再次暴发。他表示，随着新冠肺炎疫情防控更加精准，扩大内需稳增长力度加大，消费可能会改善。

 

The NBS said China's retail sales declined by 0.5 percent year-on-year in October, after the 2.5 percent year-on-year growth in September. Notably²⁰, China's online sales rose 4.9 percent year-on-year in the first 10 months.

国家统计局表示，10月份，社会消费品零售总额同比下降0.5%，前值为同比增长2.5%。值得注意的是，1-10月份，全国网上零售额同比增长4.9%。

 

Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura, warned of downward pressure from renewed domestic COVID cases, troubles in the property market and weaker global growth.

野村证券中国区首席经济学家陆挺警告称，国内新冠肺炎疫情的再次暴发、房地产市场疲软和全球经济增长走弱都给中国经济带来了下行压力。

 

Despite headwinds, Louise Loo, senior economist at the Oxford²¹ Economics think tank, expects the pass-through of recent easing measures and authorities' data-dependent policy loosening in the coming months to support a tentative and bumpy²² recovery going forward.

牛津经济研究院的高级经济学家Louise Loo预计，尽管遇到这些阻力，在未来几个月，近期宽松措施的传导以及政府的政策制定不再像以往一样依赖数据，这些都有利于经济的初步复苏。

 

"With domestic macro policy settings likely to remain loose as authorities increasingly look to stabilize the economy and the property sector²³, we expect activity indicators to bottom out and a tentative recovery to gather steam heading into 2023," Loo said.

他说：“由于政府越来越希望稳定经济和房地产行业，国内宏观政策环境可能仍将保持宽松，我们预计经济活动指标将触底反弹，到2023年，初步复苏的势头将逐渐增强。”

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