我国下半年仍将保持稳健宽松的货币政策

受猪肉涨价等因素影响，7月份CPI同比涨幅创下了两年来的新高。专家指出，结合CPI温和上升与PPI连续回落两方面综合考虑，通胀对货币政策不构成较大压力，我国下半年仍将保持稳健宽松的货币政策。

 

China will likely keep its monetary¹ policy stable and on target in the second half as consumer inflation is expected to rise mildly within a reasonable range in the rest of the year, experts said.

专家指出，下半年国内通货膨胀水平有望在合理区间内温和上升，我国将会保持稳健精准的货币政策。

 

Their comments came as China's consumer inflation accelerated to the highest level in two years, largely driven by surging pork prices, but it still managed to come in weaker than expected in July.

当前国内通胀升到了两年以来的最高水平，很大程度上是受到猪肉价格上涨的影响，但是通胀水平还是控制在7月的预期值以内。

 

China's consumer price index, a main gauge² of inflation, rose 2.7 percent year-on-year in July, following a 2.5 percent rise in the previous month, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

国家统计局8月10日发布的数据显示，7月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，而6月份的CPI同比上涨2.5%。居民消费价格指数是衡量通货膨胀的主要指标。

 

The growth in core CPI, which excludes volatile³ food and energy prices, came in at 0.8 percent year-on-year in July, following a 1 percent rise the previous month.

扣除易波动的食品和能源价格的核心CPI在7月份同比上涨0.8%，而上月同比上涨1%。

 

Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, said the rise in July CPI was largely due to soaring pork prices as some producers were reluctant to sell hogs⁴ ready for the market.

英大证券研究所所长郑后成解读称，7月份CPI上涨主要是因为一些生产商不愿出售准备上市的生猪，导致猪肉价格上扬。

 

Looking ahead, Zheng expects consumer prices may fluctuate in August, and the rise in CPI may struggle to surpass 3 percent year-on-year during the month.

展望未来，郑后成预计，8月份消费者价格可能会出现波动，CPI涨幅同比可能会超过3%。

 

Compared with soaring prices in other major economies, China's overall price levels are generally stable. Inflation hit a 40-year high in June in the United States, as the consumer price index rose 9.1 percent year-on-year, said the US Department of Labor⁵.

与其他主要经济体的物价飙升相比，中国的物价总体保持稳定。美国劳工部的数据显示，6月份美国通胀创下40年新高，CPI同比上涨9.1%。

 

Tommy Wu, lead economist⁶ at Oxford⁷ Economics, a think tank, said the spillover effect of rising global food prices on China's domestic food costs will also likely be modest, given China's self-sufficiency in staple⁸ grains in the near term.

牛津经济研究院首席经济学家胡东安认为，考虑到中国主粮短期内能自给自足，全球食品价格上涨对中国食品价格的溢出效应是有限的。

 

With limited pass-through of factory-gate inflation and energy prices on consumer prices and subdued⁹ core inflation due to weak domestic demand, Wu said his team expects China's consumer inflation to remain below the 3 percent target for 2022.

胡东安称，由于工业品出厂价格指数以及能源价格上涨对国内物价的传导影响有限，再加上国内需求不旺对核心CPI的抑制作用，他的团队预期2022年中国通胀率将保持在3%的目标值以下。

 

Against such a backdrop, he said monetary easing will remain targeted to support credit to small and medium-sized enterprises, manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure¹⁰ financing.

在这样的背景下，胡东安表示中国将会保持精准宽松的货币政策，为中小企业、制造业、房地产业和基建融资提供信贷支持。

 

A report released on Wednesday by the People's Bank of China said China may face mounting inflationary pressure at home due to factors including a recovery in consumer demand, rising pork prices and high energy and raw material costs, and imported inflationary pressures will continue to exist.

中国人民银行8月10日发布的报告称，受消费需求复苏回暖、猪肉价格上涨、能源和原材料成本仍处高位等因素影响，国内通胀压力可能加大，并且输入性通胀压力依然存在。

 

Looking into the second half, the nation's central bank said China's consumer inflation will rise at a faster pace than the level in the first half, and the CPI rise may exceed 3 percent in some months.

展望下半年，人民银行指出，CPI涨幅较上半年水平会有所抬升，一些月份涨幅可能阶段性突破3%。

 

According to the report, China will continue to keep prudent¹¹ monetary policy and refrain from adopting a deluge¹² of strong stimulus¹³ policies. And it will keep an eye on the inflation situation both at home and abroad.

央行报告指出，下一阶段中国货币政策将坚持稳健取向，坚持不搞“大水漫灌”、不超发货币，密切关注国内外通胀形势变化。

 

Wen Bin¹⁴, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said the country's economy is gradually rebounding¹⁵ amid recovering market demand, as many sectors¹⁶ included in core CPI jumped on a monthly basis.

民生银行首席研究员温彬指出，核心CPI多行业环比上涨，反映出市场需求正在复苏，我国经济正在逐步回升。

 

For instance, NBS data showed prices of plane tickets, hotel accommodations and tourism increased by 6.1 percent, 5 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, in July on a monthly basis.

举例而言，统计局数据显示，7月份飞机票、宾馆住宿和旅游价格环比分别上涨6.1%、5.0%和3.5%。

 

Even though China is facing inflationary pressure from soaring pork prices in the coming months, Wen said the government's recent moves to stabilize¹⁷ supplies and prices will help ensure market orderliness.

温彬称，尽管未来数月中国面临猪肉价格上涨引发的通胀压力，但是政府近期稳供应稳物价的举措将有助于保证市场秩序。

 

As for the rest of the year, he said his team expects the CPI to rise modestly and the producer price index to continue to trend down, which will not put extra pressure on monetary policy easing.

温彬指出，他的团队预期下半年CPI会温和上涨，生产价格指数（PPI）则会继续下行，不会给宽松货币政策施加额外压力。

 

According to the NBS, China's PPI, which gauges¹⁸ factory-gate prices, increased 4.2 percent year-on-year in July after a 6.1 percent rise in June, cooling to the lowest level since February 2021. On a monthly basis, the PPI declined 1.3 percent in July.

统计局的数据显示，7月份衡量工业品出厂价格的PPI同比上涨4.2%，环比下降1.3%，已降至2021年2月以来的最低水平。而6月份的PPI同比上涨6.1%。

 

Yin Yue, a macroeconomics analyst¹⁹ at Shanghai-listed Hongta Securities, agreed that inflation will not put much pressure on China's monetary easing, especially considering the relatively²⁰ low core CPI level and the slowdown in PPI growth.

红塔证券宏观分析师殷越也认为，通货膨胀不会对中国的宽松货币政策产生太大压力，尤其是考虑到相对较低的核心CPI水平和PPI增速的放缓。

 

Looking ahead, Feng Mohan, a macroeconomics researcher at Beijing FOST Economic Consulting Co Ltd, said he will not rule out the possibility that the PPI will decline in the second half amid weakening global demand, a gloomy global outlook and a high base effect from the previous year.

北京福盛德经济咨询有限公司宏观经济研究员冯默涵表示，随着全球需求减弱、全球经济前景越发黯淡，再加上前一年高基数效应的影响，他不排除PPI在下半年下降的可能性。

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