下半年中国经济可能出现显著回升

专家表示，随着一揽子刺激措施的实施，中国经济正逐渐从最近的新冠疫情中恢复，中国第二季度经济有望实现正增长，下半年中国经济可能出现显著回升，但消费通胀上行可能给经济增长带来挑战。

 

China is likely to see a notable rebound¹ in economic growth in the second half of the year as a package of stimulus² policy measures takes effect, but rising consumer inflation may pose a challenge, experts said.

专家表示，随着一揽子刺激措施的实施，下半年中国经济可能出现显著回升，但消费通胀上行可能给经济增长带来挑战。

 

The national economy is gradually recovering from recent COVID-19 shocks, they said, and the country will likely see positive growth in the second quarter.

专家认为，中国经济正逐渐从最近的新冠疫情中恢复，中国第二季度经济有望实现正增长。

 

Looking at the rest of the year, they expected the easing of strong fiscal³ policy and targeted monetary⁴ policy to prop⁵ up growth. This could include forceful infrastructure⁶ spending and stronger support for small and medium-sized enterprises and manufacturing.

专家预计，下半年货币政策和财政政策都会有所宽松，可能包括加强基础设施建设支出，以及对中小企业和制造业的更有力支持。

 

Meanwhile, inflation in the cost of manufactured products in China rose in June at its slowest rate since March 2021. This was brought about with the help of the government's effective measures to reboot work and production reduced by the pandemic. The efforts were directed at stabilizing⁷ key industrial and supply chains and ensuring stable supplies and prices while leaving room for further stimulus policy measures to shore up growth.

与此同时，由于政府采取有效措施应对疫情导致的停工减产，中国6月份制造业产品成本通胀率创下2021年3月以来的最低水平。这些措施旨在稳定关键行业和供应链，确保稳定的供应和价格，同时为进一步刺激政策留下空间，以支持增长。

 

Chen Weidong, director of the research institute at the Bank of China, said China's economy has gradually stabilized⁸ with the help of a series of government stimulus measures after a softening⁹ of economic activity since March amid resurgent domestic COVID-19 cases.

中国银行研究院院长陈卫东表示，自3月份以来，由于国内疫情出现反弹，经济活动有所放缓，在政府一系列刺激措施的帮助下，中国经济已逐渐稳定。

 

As the pandemic's impact further eases and policy stimulus takes effect, the economy will rebound in both quarters of the second half, Chen said.

陈卫东称，随着疫情的影响进一步缓解，政策刺激的生效，经济将在下半年回暖。

 

Wen Bin¹⁰, chief economist¹¹ at China Minsheng Bank, said China's GDP is likely to grow by around 0.5 percent in the second quarter, mainly fueled by the recovery in June amid a gradual resumption of work and production.

中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，中国第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）将实现正增长，这主要得益于6月份逐步复工复产。

 

China's producer price index, which gauges¹² manufactured product prices, increased 6.1 percent year-on-year in June, following a 6.4 percent rise in the previous month, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday.

国家统计局7月9日表示，6月份生产者价格指数（PPI）同比增长6.1%，上月涨幅为6.4%。

 

China's consumer price index, the main gauge¹³ of inflation, rose 2.5 percent year-on-year in June, compared with a 2.1 percent rise in May, according to NBS data.

根据国家统计局数据，6月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.5%，而5月份CPI涨幅为2.1%。

 

Wen said consumer inflation came in slightly higher than market expectations, warning of pressures from rising pork prices, imported inflation risks and a gradual pickup¹⁴ in demand.

温彬称，消费通胀略高于市场预期，并警告猪肉价格上涨、输入性通胀风险和需求逐步回升带来的压力。

 

As for the second half of the year, he said his team expects consumer price index inflation to rise modestly and producer price index inflation to trend down, so inflation will not put significant pressure on monetary policy easing.

温彬表示，他的团队预计今年下半年CPI将温和上升，PPI将呈下降趋势，因此通胀不会给货币宽松政策带来重压。

 

Compared with the soaring prices in other major economies, China's overall price level is generally stable. Inflation hit a new 40-year high in May in the United States, as the consumer price index rose 8.6 percent year-on-year, US Labor¹⁵ Department data showed.

与其他主要经济体的物价飙升相比，中国的整体价格水平总体平稳。美国劳工部数据显示，5月份美国通货膨胀创下40年新高，消费者价格指数同比上涨8.6%。

 

The Chinese government has already taken solid steps to keep overall prices within a reasonable range. The National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic regulator, recently said it is considering releasing pork from central reserves and guiding localities to release extra stocks in a timely manner to prevent sharp increases in hog¹⁶ prices.

中国政府已采取切实措施，将整体价格控制在合理区间内。国家发展和改革委员会最近表示，正研究启动投放中央猪肉储备，并指导地方适时联动投放储备，防范生猪价格过快上涨。

 

Liu Zhicheng, director of the commodity market division at the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research's market and price institute, said there is little likelihood of further hog price gains in the next few months, considering factors such as China's sufficient supply, slowing pork consumption in July and August and the recent pig feed price declines.

中国宏观经济研究院市场与价格研究所大宗商品研究室主任刘志成表示，考虑到中国生猪供应充足、7月和8月猪肉消费放缓以及近期猪饲料价格下跌等因素，未来几个月生猪价格没有进一步上涨的空间。

 

Zhou Maohua, an analyst¹⁷ at China Everbright Bank, said the latest inflation figures show a steady recovery in domestic demand, especially in the services sector¹⁸.

光大银行分析师周茂华表示，最新的通胀数据显示国内需求稳步复苏，尤其是服务业。

 

Citing some better-than-expected economic indicators¹⁹ in May and June, Zhou said China is likely to post growth in the second quarter. He called for more efforts to further resume production and ensure stable supplies and prices, and monetary policy easing to boost domestic demand, as well as stronger support for SMEs and key projects.

周茂华引用了5月和6月一些好于预期的经济指标称，中国经济很可能在第二季度实现增长。他呼吁加大力度进一步恢复生产，确保供应和价格稳定，宽松货币政策以刺激内需，并加强对中小企业和重点项目的支持。

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