中国经济第二季度有望实现正增长

经济学家和分析师指出，随着疫情影响减退，复工复产逐步推进，政府出台更多扶持政策，中国第二季度有望实现经济正增长。

 

China will likely post positive economic growth in the second quarter of the year, and growth is projected to pick up in June with the gradual resumption of work and production, according to economists² and analysts³.

经济学家和分析师称，中国第二季度有望实现经济正增长，随着复工复产逐步推进，6月经济增速将会加快。

 

They said policymakers will introduce more policy easing such as stronger support for infrastructure⁴, more supplementary⁵ fiscal⁶ relief and a lowering of banks' actual lending rates to cushion the impact of COVID-19 and stabilize⁷ overall growth in the coming months.

专家表示，为了缓和新冠疫情的冲击，并在未来数月保持整体经济增长的稳定，决策者将会出台更多宽松政策，包括加强对基础设施的支持，追加财政补贴，以及降低银行的实际贷款利率。

 

Their comments came as China's producer prices rose in May at their slowest rate since March 2021, as the government took steps to coordinate⁸ COVID-19 control measures with economic development and stabilize industrial and supply chains in key sectors⁹, leaving room for more policy stimulus¹⁰ to shore up the economy.

由于政府采取措施统筹推进新冠防控和经济发展，稳定重点行业的产业链和供应链，并为更多稳增长政策出台留出了空间，5月份的工业生产者出厂价格涨幅降到了2021年3月以来的最低水平。

 

Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist¹ at Ping An Securities, said the economy is gradually returning to normal, and China will likely see positive growth in the second quarter as the impact of the pandemic gradually eases and the government implements¹² more measures to stabilize growth.

平安证券首席经济学家钟正生指出，眼下经济正逐渐回归常态，随着疫情影响慢慢消退，政府实施更多稳增长措施，中国第二季度有望实现正增长。

 

"For China's economy, the worst moment might be over, and the country's economic recovery is expected to accelerate in June," Zhong said.

钟正生表示，对中国的经济而言，最糟的时刻可能已经过去，6月份中国经济复苏有望加快。

 

China's producer price index, which gauges¹⁴ factory-gate prices, increased 6.4 percent year-on-year in May, following an 8 percent rise in the previous month, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.

国家统计局6月10日发布的数据显示，5月份全国工业生产者出厂价格同比上涨6.4%，而4月份全国工业生产者出厂价格同比上涨8.0%。

 

China's consumer price index, the main gauge¹³ of inflation, rose 2.1 percent year-on-year in May, unchanged from April, the NBS data showed.

国家统计局的数据显示，5月份中国的居民消费价格指数同比上涨2.1%，涨幅与上月相同。居民消费价格指数是衡量通货膨胀的主要指标。

 

Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura, said both PPI and CPI inflation for May were largely in line with market expectations and his team expects PPI inflation to trend down and CPI inflation to rise modestly.

野村首席中国经济学家陆挺表示，5月份的工业生产者出厂价格指数和居民消费价格指数与市场预期基本一致，他的团队认为，工业生产者出厂价格指数未来呈下降趋势，而居民消费价格指数会小幅上涨。

 

"Due to weak demand, supply disruptions in China since early March as a result of the resurgence¹⁵ of COVID-19 have not led to a rapid rise in domestic inflation," Lu added.

陆挺指出，由于三月初以来国内新冠疫情反复导致需求疲软、供应中断，从而未引发国内通胀率快速上升。

 

In fact, compared with soaring prices in other major economies, China's overall price level is within a controllable range. The inflation hit a new 40-year high in May in the United States, as the CPI rose 8.6 percent year-on-year, the US Labor¹⁶ Department data showed on Friday.

事实上，和其他主要经济体的物价飞涨相比，中国的整体物价水平仍在可控范围内。美国劳工部6月10日的数据显示，美国5月份的通货膨胀率创下了40年来的新高，消费者价格指数同比上涨8.6%。

 

Wen Bin¹⁷, chief researcher at China Minsheng Bank, said China's overall inflation level is generally controllable, suggesting that the nation has room to step up macro policy support.

民生银行首席研究员温彬指出，中国的整体通胀水平总体可控，这表明中国有足够的空间可以加大宏观政策支持。

 

Warning of downward pressure facing China's economy, Wen said the government needs to forcefully implement¹¹ macro policies to stabilize growth and ensure economic growth within a reasonable range in the second quarter. More efforts should also be made to boost credit supply to the real economy, ensure supplies and stable prices, and prevent imported inflation risks.

但是，温彬警告，中国经济仍面临下行压力，他指出政府需要强力推行宏观政策来稳增长，确保第二季度的经济增速在合理范围内。政府还应进一步出台措施来加强对实体经济的信贷支持，确保供应和物价稳定，并预防输入性通胀风险。

 

The State Council recently unveiled a total of 33 measures covering fiscal, financial, investment, consumption and industrial policies to further stabilize the economy.

国务院近期出台了稳经济一揽子政策措施，共33项，涵盖了财政、金融、投资、消费和产业政策等。

 

China's credit expansion improved in May as the impact of the pandemic gradually eased. The increment¹⁸ in aggregate¹⁹ social financing－the total amount of financing to the real economy－was 2.79 trillion yuan ($420 billion) in May, up 839.9 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, said on Friday.

随着疫情影响逐渐消退，中国5月份的信贷规模有所扩大。中国人民银行6月10日发布数据显示，5月社会融资规模增量为2.79万亿元，比去年同期多出8399亿元。社会融资规模是指实体经济从金融体系获得的资金总额。

 

Monetary²⁰ conditions have been loosened as China's broad money supply, or M2, stood at 252.7 trillion yuan as of the end of May, up 11.1 percent year-on-year. The growth rate is 0.6 points higher than a month earlier, the central bank said.

央行数据显示货币环境有所放松，5月末国内的广义货币（M2）余额为252.7万亿元，同比增长11.1%，较上月提升0.6个百分点。

 

Looking ahead, Robin²¹ Xing, Morgan Stanley's chief China economist, said policymakers may introduce more pandemic fiscal relief or bring forward some 2023 construction bond quotas²² to this year.

摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强表示，展望未来，决策者可以出台更多疫情防控财政补贴，或在今年发放一部分2023年建设债券额度。

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