2021年度气候变化十大科学事件

Organized by the China's National Climate Center (NCC), academicians of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Engineering, members of the National Climate Change Expert Committee, and other well-known experts selected the 10 events.

中国气象局气候变化中心在组织专家初步遴选的基础上，邀请中国科学院和中国工程院两院院士、国家气候变化专家委员会委员、国内气候变化领域知名专家，对候选事件进行了评选。

 

最终评选出的“2021年度气候变化十大科学事件”（top 10 scientific events related to climate change in 2021）包括：

 

1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the report "Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis," pointing out unprecedented¹ changes in the climate

1.联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会发布AR6 WGI评估报告《气候变化2021：自然科学基础》，指出许多观测到的变化前所未有

 

According to the report, many of the changes observed in the climate are unprecedented in thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of years, and some of the changes already set in motion — such as continued sea level rise — are irreversible over hundreds to thousands of years.

报告指出，科学家们观测到的许多变化为几千年来甚至几十万年来前所未有，一些如海平面持续上升等已经开始的变化在数百到数千年内不可逆转。

 

2. The Glasgow Climate Pact² was adopted, emphasizing the importance of science for effective climate action

2.格拉斯哥气候变化大会达成《格拉斯哥气候协议》，强调科学在应对气候变化政策制定中的重要性

 

The document takes "science and urgency" as its first section, emphasizing the importance of the best available science for effective climate action and policymaking.

《格拉斯哥气候协议》将科学作为第一部分，指出现有最佳科学对有效气候行动和政策制定的重要性，从科学的角度强调了应对气候变化的紧迫性。

 

3. Climate scientists awarded 2021 Nobel Prize for Physics

3. 气候学家获2021年诺贝尔物理学奖

 

The 2021 Nobel Prize for Physics was awarded to American Japanese meteorologist Syukuro Manabe, German scientist Klaus Wassermann, and Italian theoretical physicist³ Giorgio Parisi.

2021年诺贝尔物理学奖授予美籍日裔气象学家真锅淑郎、德国海洋学和气象学家克劳斯·哈塞尔曼和意大利物理学家乔治·帕里西。

 

大气与海洋科学(atmospheric and oceanic Science)领域首获物理学奖(Nobel Prize for Physics)，必将进一步引起国际社会对全球变暖（global warming）问题的关注。

 

4. The WHO launched a special report on climate change and health, prioritizing climate actions with the largest health gains

4.世界卫生组织发布《气候变化与健康特别报告》，建议优先考虑具有最大健康效益的气候政策

 

报告强调前所未有的极端天气事件（extreme weather events）和其他气候变化事件（events related to climate change）正对人类生命和健康造成越来越大的损害，各国必须大力作出应对气候变化的承诺，在新冠肺炎疫情后实现有益健康的绿色复苏（green recovery）。

 

 

5. The Chinese government worked with the sci-tech community to achieve carbon peak and neutrality targets, issuing important reports on climate change

5.中国政府和科技界合力推进碳达峰和碳中和，气候变化白皮书、蓝皮书和绿皮书相继发布

 

6. Climate change has increased extreme weather events; record-shattering heat waves will become far more likely; and tropical cyclones⁴ may occur over a wider range of latitudes⁵

6.气候变化造成极端事件频发，破纪录热浪的发生概率增加,热带气旋将可能向中纬度地区扩展

 

7. Major Atlantic Ocean current system may be approaching critical threshold

7.大西洋洋流系统可能正在接近气候临界点

 

A study conducted as part of the European TiPES project, coordinated⁶ by the University of Copenhagen, Denmark, and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany, suggested that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may have been losing stability in the course of the last century.

2021年丹麦哥本哈根大学和德国波茨坦气候影响研究所的一项研究指出，大西洋经向翻转环流在20世纪可能已经失去稳定性。

 

The AMOC transports warm water from the tropics northward⁷ at the ocean surface and cold water southward at the ocean floor, which is particularly relevant for the relatively⁸ mild temperatures in Europe.

大西洋经向翻转环流将热带地区的暖水向北输送到海洋表面，将冷水向南输送到海洋底部，与欧洲相对温和的温度联系密切。

 

It has previously⁹ been shown that the AMOC is currently at its weakest in more than 1,000 years.

研究表明，目前大西洋经向翻转环流处于1000多年来的最弱状态。

 

Influence of the AMOC on weather systems worldwide means that a potential collapse¹⁰ of the ocean current system could have severe consequences.

大西洋经向翻转环流影响全球天气系统，它的潜在崩溃可能会产生严重的后果。

 

8. China established greenhouse gas observation network

8.中国气象局建成我国首个国家温室气体观测网

 

Among the elements under observation are seven types of greenhouse gases specified¹¹ in the Kyoto Protocol¹², including carbon dioxide, methane¹⁴ and nitrous oxide¹³.

其观测要素涵盖《京都议定书》中规定的CO2、CH4、N2O等 7类温室气体。

 

9. Delivering on long-term net zero emission¹⁵ targets would result in a temperature increase of about 1.8 degrees Celsius¹⁶ by the end of the century

9.各国最新气候承诺将使21世纪末全球温升降低到1.8℃

 

Last December, the European Commission's Joint¹⁷ Research Centre published a report titled "Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) 2021: Advancing Towards Climate Neutrality." The document takes stock of recent updates to national climate targets taking into account nationally determined¹⁸ contributions (NDCs) and national long-term net zero strategies (LTS).

2021年12月，欧盟委员会联合研究中心发布了《2021年全球能源与气候展望：迈向气候中和》的报告，评估了更新的国家自主贡献和长期净零排放目标对温升水平的影响。

 

Delivering on long-term net zero emission targets would result in a temperature increase of around 1.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. However, strong policy action is needed, as the report states that current policies may lead to a temperature increase of more than 3 degrees Celsius. In the NDC-LTS pathway, emissions¹⁹ would peak around 2023 and then stabilize²⁰ by mid-century, while current policies are only sufficient to stabilize global emissions by 2035-2040, according to the GECO 2021.

报告指出,目前的政策背景下到2100年全球温升幅度会超过3 ℃，而实现长期净零排放目标则可使到2100年全球温升幅度降低至1.8℃。在当前的政策背景下，全球温室气体排放量将到2040年左右达到峰值，而在长期净零排放路径下，全球温室气体排放量将在2023年左右达到峰值，并在21世纪中叶稳定下来。

 

10. Global fossil CO2 emissions rebounded²¹ close to pre-COVID-19 levels

10.2021年全球二氧化碳排放大幅反弹，化石燃料CO2排放量几乎已恢复到疫情暴发前水平

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