IMF：对今年全球经济的预期略有上调

The International Monetary¹ Fund on Tuesday turned slightly more positive on the global economy for this year, but warned of a "long, uneven² and uncertain" recovery.

 

国际货币基金组织周二发布报告，对今年全球经济的预期略有上调，但警告称，“全球经济复苏将是漫长、坎坷而不确定的”。

 

The global economy is now projected to contract by 4.4% in 2020 — an upward revision from an estimate of -4.9% made in June (which has now also been revised to -5.2% due to a new methodology used by the IMF). The IMF’s forecast assumes that social distancing due to the coronavirus pandemic will continue into 2021, and that local transmission will fall everywhere by the end of 2022.

 

Among major economies, only China is expected to expand in 2020. The IMF believes the country, which battled Covid-19 earlier than the rest of the world and was quickly able to move out of lockdown due to strict containment³ measures, will grow by 1.9%.

 

"We are projecting a somewhat less severe though still deep recession in 2020, relative to our June forecast," the IMF’s chief economist⁴, Gita Gopinath, said in the latest World Economic Outlook.

 

She added that the revision was driven by better-than-expected growth in advanced economies and China during the second quarter of the year and signs of a more rapid recovery in the third quarter.

 

However, the outlook warned that the coronavirus crisis is far from over.

 

The IMF projected "only limited progress" going forward and cut its gross domestic product growth expectations for next year to 5.2%, from an estimate of 5.4% made in June.

 

"While the global economy is coming back, the ascent⁵ will likely be long, uneven, and uncertain," Gopinath said, while adding that "prospects⁶ have worsened significantly in some emerging market and developing economies."

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